373
FXUS63 KDDC 191110
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
510 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY DESPITE AN EARLY MORNING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
- COLD AIR FINALLY ARRIVES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER WILL SUPPORT A WIDE
RANGE IN HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- QUIET, WARM, AND DRY PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST CHRISTMAS EVE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL A RATHER MUTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER
THE CONUS, WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND WEAK
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A ~1007-MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SPREAD OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AHEAD OF A WEAK VORTICITY MAX. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
AGREES THESE FEATURES WILL SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST DAYTIME
THURSDAY, SENDING A MODEST COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THAT SAID, THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE HEAVILY
DELAYED, ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S TODAY. THURSDAY NIGHT, THE COLD AIR FINALLY ARRIVES IN
OUR AREA, FOSTERING FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
DAYTIME FRIDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS BOTH THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN
TROUGH GAIN STRENGTH. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, RENEWED
LEE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE NEXT VORTICITY MAX DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA, YIELDING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE KS/CO
BORDER THAT WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. AS A RESULT, FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A STARK DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES FROM
EAST TO WEST, WITH HIGHS NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 50S WHILE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO CENTRAL KS STRUGGLE TO
BREACH 40.
OVER THE WEEKEND, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL FLATTEN OUT, WITH ROUGHLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NO NOTEWORTHY UPPER LEVEL WAVES
PASSING THROUGH, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN NBM HIGHS
STAYING ROUGHLY THE SAME IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ALL THE WAY
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH NO MENTIONABLE POPS (<15%).
THEREFORE, IT APPEARS QUITE LIKELY THAT OUR AREA WILL REMAIN
MIRED IN A QUIET, WARM, AND DRY PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR A
BRIEF WINDOW FROM 18-22Z IN HYS WHEN WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE 10-15 KT RANGE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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