704
FXUS63 KDDC 200515
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1115 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT
- WARM THIS WEEKEND
- STAYING MAINLY DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME HINTS OF RAIN
POTENTIAL AFTER CHRISTMAS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
19Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A VORT MAX AND JET MAX
MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE THE LEADING EDGE OF A WIND
SHIFT LINE HAS MOVED WELL INTO OKLAHOMA WITH THE STRONGER COLD AIR
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TONIGHT SHORT TERM ENSEMBLES HAVE THE COLDER AIR MASS MOVING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE
STRONGEST 850 MB WINDS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AND
MUCH MORE SO IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. THIS WILL SET UP COOLER
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO
40 AROUND HAYS VERSUS NEAR 60 DEGREE TEMPS AGAIN IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST WHERE WARMER 850 MB TEMPS WILL PREVAIL AND WINDS WILL TURN
BACK TO THE SOUTH EARLIER IN THE DAY.
THIS WEEKEND SHOULD SEE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR TEMPERATURES.
EUROPEAN AND NORTH AMERICAN GLOBAL ENSEMBLES BOTH ARE SHOWING 90%
PERCENTILE FOR 850 TEMPS ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND GIVEN THAT WE WILL
HAVE ANOTHER BATCH OF LEE TROUGHING AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DURING THE DAY I UPPED TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY CLOSER TO NBM90TH
GUIDANCE WHICH WILL PUT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
NEXT WEEK LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE STILL SHOWING A MID WEEK SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
LATEST TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK AND STAYING A
QUICK MOVING PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. THAT WOULD SUGGEST ANY SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICK MOVING AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. LONG
RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO REFLECT THIS MORE WITH THE MEAN
OUTPUT OF PRECIP STAYING UNDER 0.5 INCH. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK ARE
GOING TO STAY WARMER THAN AVERAGE AS NO MAJOR COLD TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING UP. THIS WOULD SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALL SHOULD BE IN LIQUID FORM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
10-13 KT RANGE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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