796
FXUS63 KDDC 201642
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1042 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET, WARM, AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- NON-ZERO PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD, BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 08Z FRIDAY MORNING REVEALS NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE ROCKIES
AS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS.
NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED TO THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
DAYTIME FRIDAY OTHER THAN A SMALL VORTICITY MAX DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, RENEWED LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACHING IMPULSE WILL TAKE PLACE FROM EASTERN MT
THROUGH EASTERN CO, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KS AND RESULTING IN A MODEST INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF US-83. THIS WILL FOSTER AN APPRECIABLE
DIFFERENCE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER DECREASING TO
THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S NEAR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUIET, WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 20S.
ON SATURDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OUT WEST WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN OWING TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH DNVA AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING RIDGE BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE, AND COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS EASTERN AND
CENTRAL KS, ONLY A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST TO
MID/UPPER 40S EAST.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE LARGELY FLAT, WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS
ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE BOTH DAYS, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S SUNDAY COOLING SLIGHTLY TO THE MID 50S ON MONDAY AFTER A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD, ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE PERTURBED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE
THE CONUS. FOR THE MOST PART, THESE FEATURES WILL BRING LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS. HOWEVER,
ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT A RETURN OF NON-ZERO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AS LREF PROBABILITY OF QPF >
0.01" RISES INTO THE 15-35% RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ON THE OTHER HAND, PREDICTABILITY AT THESE RANGES IS
LOW, AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES. DURING THE PERIOD,
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE. THE WEAK WINDS WILL SHIFT
DRAMATICALLY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...KBJ
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