593
FXUS63 KDDC 202255
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
455 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ENSEMBLES HOST MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES (5-15%) FOR RAIN NEXT
WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCE (25-50%) WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
A LONG STRETCH OF DRY AND QUIET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SW KANSAS.
CURRENTLY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SIMILARLY QUIET WITH THE FORECAST
AREA IN BETWEEN A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST AND THE STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE EAST COAST. AT THE LOWER-LEVELS, A
FEW HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN BETWEEN. THE HIGHS ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE CLEAR WEATHER WITH VERY LIGHTS WINDS FOR MUCH OF
SW KANSAS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SOUTHERN WINDS
ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER HELPING BRINGING WARMER WINDS TO THAT PORTION
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TAKE A DIAGONAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST ARE WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST. SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE 60S WHILE
PLACES UP NEAR HAYS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO EVEN 40 DEGREES.
ENSEMBLES HAVE THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR WEAK WINDS TO RETURN. OTHER THAN THE SHIFTS OF
THE WINDS, THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN
STAGNANT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE WEEKEND WILL LOOK SIMILAR TO FRIDAY IN NEARLY ALL FACETS. LIGHT
WINDS, HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40-50S, AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR ANY NOTABLE WEATHER COMES ON TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING INTO TEXAS IS DEPICTED BY MODELS TO MOVE
EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE WEAK STRENGTH, THE
OVERALL IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER SOME MODELS, LIKE THE GFS,
ARE OPTIMISTIC SOME OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE RAINFALL.
ENSEMBLES AND MOST OTHER MODELS HAVE LITTLE TO NO CHANCES WITH
ENSEMBLE MEANS BETWEEN 5-10% FOR RAIN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 56. THE NEXT
CHANCE ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. ENSEMBLES HAVE HELD
FIRM THAT A SHALLOW TROUGH, WITH UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICAL SUPPORT, WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE SPECIFICS OF THE PRECIPITATION
BOTH SPATIALLY AND IN REGARDS TO TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT, COMPOUNDED BY VAST DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS/ENSEMBLES.
LATEST ENSEMBLE RUNS HAVE PROBABILITIES RANGING FROM 25-50% FOR RAIN
FOR ALL OF SW KANSAS. THESE NUMBERS CAN BE A LITTLE DECEIVING AS THE
CHANCE THAT RAIN OCCURS SOMEWHERE IS MUCH LARGER THAN 50%, BUT THE
CHANCES OF A PARTICULAR POINT IN SPACE RECEIVING RAIN FROM THE
SYSTEM IS 25-50%. THE PROBABILITIES AND LOCATIONS WILL BE REFINED
GREATLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ONCE THE SYSTEM IS BETTER RESOLVED.
BEYOND THURSDAY, LONG-RANGED ENSEMBLES SHOWCASE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
LOW PROBABILITY PRECIPITATION. NOT MUCH CAN BE ATTAINED
SPECIFICALLY FROM THIS UNTIL THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM MENTIONED FOR
THURSDAY ARE HANDLED BY MODELS/ENSEMBLES. IT DOES LEND SOME CREDENCE
THAT A WETTER PATTERN COULD TAKE HOLD OVER SW KANSAS TO END THE
YEAR. TENTATIVELY, IMPACTS FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 446 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING,
BECOMING MORE VARIABLE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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