295
FXUS63 KDDC 210800
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY, THE LATTER OF
WHICH APPEARS ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.
- WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
- NON-ZERO PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN AROUND MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING, BUT ANY QPF WILL BE
MINIMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL A MODESTLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN
PLACE OVER THE CONUS, WITH RIDGING WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND A
STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AGREES THESE
FEATURES WILL SLIDES EAST DAYTIME SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE DAMPENS
OWING TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. DESPITE STEADILY WEAKENING SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND WIDESPREAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
WARMER TODAY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER TO THE MID/UPPER 40S
NEAR CENTRAL KS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KS AS THE UPPER RIDGE DAMPENS FURTHER THANKS TO THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 20S.
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RESUME ON
THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SURFACE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE
EJECTING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
MID 60S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST UNDER CLEAR SKIES. SUNDAY NIGHT,
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST, SENDING A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLES AGREE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PERTURBED
AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS. GIVEN
THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY DOCILE, LITTLE TO
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A COUPLE OF
THESE WILL SUPPORT THE RETURN OF NON-ZERO PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
MAINLY SURROUNDING MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING, AS LREF PROBABILITY OF QPF > 0.01" RISE AS HIGH AS THE
20-40% RANGE. THAT SAID, PREDICTABILITY AT THIS RANGE IS LOW,
AND SOUTHWEST KS COULD EASILY MISS OUT ON ONE OR BOTH OF THESE
EVENTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page