874
FXUS63 KDDC 151647
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1047 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR (25% CHANCE) ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TONIGHT, INCLUDING LOCATIONS SUCH AS HAYS AND LARNED.
- DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
- MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH
THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- MOST OF SW KANSAS HAS A CHANCE (>40%) FOR SNOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH FAR WESTERN KANSAS POSSIBLY (40-60%) GETTING
MULTIPLE INCHES OF SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
UPSTREAM OF SW KANSAS' SYNOPTIC PATTERN, A REX BLOCK CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE OVER THE WEST COAST. WHILE PREDOMINATELY UNDER A SURFACE
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REGIME, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS DRAPED
VERTICALLY ACROSS THE CWA. A 5-10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE SEPARATES THE
SURFACE LEVEL AIRMASSES. CAMS CONTINUE TO HAVE FOG DEVELOPMENT UP BY
HAYS, SO SOME REMAINS IN THE FORECAST BUT CURRENT VISIBILITIES
REMAIN CLEAR.
OUTSIDE OF FOG CONCERNS, THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WEATHER-
WISE UNTIL THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO THE
MID-WEEK WARM AT AROUND 10-15 DEGREES FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY FROM
TUESDAY. DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SUBTLE WAA WILL ASSIST IN THIS WARMUP,
AND REMAINING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MELT RAPIDLY.
THE BULK OF THE METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS REMAINS ON THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS STILL LARGELY ON TRACK WITH BOTH THE SNOW AND THE
TEMPERATURES CONSIDERING THE TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY. ENSEMBLES STILL
HAVE THE BLOCKING PATTERN ERODING THURSDAY GIVING SPACE FOR THE
STRONG AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING DEEPLY TOWARDS THE
SOUTH FROM CANADA. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL
QUICKLY PLUNGE VERY COLD AIR INTO THE CWA AIDED BY THE POSITIVE TILT
OF THE TROUGH. THE COLD, ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO STAY STEADY IN
TIMING ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON
TRACK TO DROP 20+ DEGREES IN TOTAL, NEARING AROUND 10 DEGREES PER
DAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THE SHARPER TEMPERATURE DROP HAS ELIMINATED
NEARLY ALL RAIN POTENTIAL FROM THE PRECIPITATION MIX LEAVING JUST
SNOW. SNOW TIMING CONTINUES TO START IN SW KANSAS IN THE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING HOURS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN SNOW AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS OF THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AS THEY CONTINUE TO SHIFT BETWEEN
RUNS. ENSEMBLE MEAN AMOUNTS HAVE TICKED UP SLIGHTLY WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS AROUND 3-5 INCHES TUCKED IN FAR SW KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE
DURATION OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. THE AREA OF THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALSO
CORRESPOND WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES MAXING OUT AT AROUND 85%.
MOVING EAST DROPS THE CHANCES WITH HIGHWAY 83 AT AROUND 75%, HIGHWAY
283 AT AROUND 50%, AND HIGHWAY 183 AT AROUND 40% FOR SNOWFALL VIA
ENSEMBLES. ENOUGH TIME HAS ELAPSED TO INCREASE SOME CONFIDENCE ON
THE SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE COLD AND THE SNOW. LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON EXACT AMOUNTS AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES,
BUT AS A WHOLE THE SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE AS INITIALLY
FORECAST. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE WIDESPREAD
NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS. THE FORECAST SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR IMPACTS
AND HEADLINES AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH
TOMORROW.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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