507
FXUS63 KDDC 152019
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
219 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY.
- A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH A TRACE
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 283
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
- WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE TEENS
ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW IN
RESPONSE TO THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 20S AND HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
SHIFTING WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED.
EVEN WITH THIS SHIFT IN WINDS HIGHS FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE
LOW 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE 40S WILL BE
FOUND. COLD AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY MORNING, HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE
20S, AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS THIS
WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY. HOWEVER, RECENT ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A
DECREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
AS YOU HEAD EAST. AS OF NOW, THE NBM SHOWS A 10-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
OVER AN INCH OF SNOW WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 283
MAY ONLY OBSERVE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOW CHANCES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
FARTHER EAST WITH THIS EVENT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK. AS OF NOW, THERE
DOESN'T LOOK TO BE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS EVENT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
SUNDAY WITH ONLY REACHING INTO THE TEENS MONDAY. WE THEN REBOUND
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY 30S WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL DIP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING WITH BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
WINDS WILL PROBABLY PUT US INTO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA
POSSIBLY MONDAY MORNING AND MORE LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH
TOMORROW.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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