129
FXUS63 KDDC 152224
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
424 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY.
- A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. FAR WESTERN KANSAS
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH A
TRACE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 283
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
- WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE TEENS
ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S AND HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE
50S WITH 40S ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 30
DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, SHIFTING WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH AN
INCREASE IN SPEED. EVEN WITH THIS SHIFT IN WINDS HIGHS FRIDAY
LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOW 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE 40S WILL BE FOUND. COLD AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES
THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY
MORNING, HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 20S, AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS THIS WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, RECENT ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A DECREASE IN SNOW
AMOUNTS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS
YOU HEAD EAST. AS OF NOW, THE NBM SHOWS A 10-30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF OVER AN INCH OF SNOW WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 MAY ONLY OBSERVE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE.
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOW CHANCES LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST WITH THIS EVENT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
TELL HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
MID WEEK. AS OF NOW, THERE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH THIS EVENT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY
REACH INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S SUNDAY WITH ONLY REACHING INTO
THE TEENS MONDAY. WE THEN REBOUND INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY 30S WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY PUT US INTO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MORE LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 424 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE,
WITH VFR/SKC AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...TURNER
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