462
FXUS63 KDDC 161955
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
155 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY.
- A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. FAR WESTERN MAY
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH.
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF OVER 2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND
- WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE TEENS
ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS
EVENING DUE TO LEE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS THEN START TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE 20S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TOMORROW AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
SHIFTING WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED.
EVEN WITH THIS SHIFT IN WINDS HIGHS FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE
LOW 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE 40S WILL BE
FOUND. COLD AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LOW 20S WILL BE FOUND. HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 20S WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION, MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS THIS WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE LIGHT. ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE SHOW LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS
AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS OF
NOW, THE NBM SHOWS A 10-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OVER AN INCH OF SNOW
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. AREAS EAST OF OF THIS AREA MAY ONLY OBSERVE A
FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOW CHANCES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
FARTHER EAST WITH THIS EVENT. THE NBM CURRENTLY DEPICTS SNOW AMOUNTS
OF OVER AN INCH RANGING FROM AROUND 10 PERCENT AROUND THE HAYS AREA
WITH 30-50 PERCENT SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO
MEDICINE LODGE. THERE IS A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF OVER 4
INCHES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK. AS OF NOW, THERE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS EVENT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S SUNDAY WITH
ONLY THE TEENS MONDAY. WE THEN REBOUND INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY 30S WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY PUT US INTO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MORE LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW WITH INCREASED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN CURL TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH AN
INCREASE IN SPEED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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