627
FXUS63 KDDC 170445
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1045 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS ONLY IN
THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.
- A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. FAR WESTERN ZONES MAY
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH.
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF
OVER 2 INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF DODGE
CITY TO ASHLAND
- WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE TEENS
ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH
THIS EVENING DUE TO LEE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS THEN START TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE 20S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TOMORROW AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, SHIFTING WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH AN
INCREASE IN SPEED. EVEN WITH THIS SHIFT IN WINDS HIGHS FRIDAY
LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOW 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE 40S WILL BE FOUND. COLD AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES
THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LOW 20S
WILL BE FOUND. HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
20S WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS THIS
WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LIGHT. ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE SHOW LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS OF
NOW, THE NBM SHOWS A 10-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OVER AN INCH OF
SNOW WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. AREAS EAST OF OF THIS AREA MAY ONLY
OBSERVE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOW CHANCES LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST WITH THIS EVENT. THE NBM CURRENTLY
DEPICTS SNOW AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH RANGING FROM AROUND 10
PERCENT AROUND THE HAYS AREA WITH 30-50 PERCENT SOUTH AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO MEDICINE LODGE. THERE IS A 20-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF OVER 4 INCHES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF
DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK. AS OF NOW, THERE
DOESN'T LOOK TO BE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS EVENT. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS AND
LOW 20S SUNDAY WITH ONLY THE TEENS MONDAY. WE THEN REBOUND INTO
THE 20S TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY 30S WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL DIP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING WITH BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
THE WINDS WILL PROBABLY PUT US INTO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA POSSIBLY MONDAY MORNING AND MORE LIKELY TUESDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. LLWS VIA A LLJ IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. A FROPA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
TERMINALS MID DAY. EXPECT THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SWITCH NW
TO N AND BLOW 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KT AFTER FROPA.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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