754
FXUS63 KDDC 172007
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW CHANCES (20-40%) PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
- A COLD AIRMASS ARRIVING TONIGHT WILL RESULT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. NEAR THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS.
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES (20-40%) PICK UP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE SREF INDICATES A BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE COLORADO ROCKIES. NEAR THE SURFACE,
ALTHOUGH MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS BEHIND A COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT
THERE WILL BE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CORE SHORTWAVE ITSELF, AS SUGGESTED BY WEAK QPF SIGNALS
IN EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. EVEN WITH
VERY WEAK H7 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING NOTED BY SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLES,
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT AS A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS TO +100K BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WHERE THE HREF PAINTS A 60 TO 80% PROBABILITY OF SNOWFALL
EXCEEDING A MERE 0.1 OF AN INCH, SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL TENTHS. ISOLATED AREAS
OF NEAR 1 INCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
FORECAST MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER, POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN INTO NORTH
TEXAS, DROPPING H85 TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW 0C WITH 10C BELOW ZERO
LIKELY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST HREF SHOWS A 20 TO 40%
PROBABILITY OF LOWS DROPPING BELOW 20F IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO A 30
TO 50% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 25F FARTHER SOUTH
CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN
PLAINS REINFORCES AN EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH H85 TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND TO A LITTLE UNDER 10C BELOW
ZERO. WITH THE HREF POINTING TO A 60 TO 80% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING ABOVE 20F IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO A 40 TO 60%
PROBABILITY OF TOPPING 25F ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LOOK
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 20S(F) IN VICINITY OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER/MID 20S(F) FARTHER SOUTHWEST CLOSER
TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOW
TO EXIT THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT DIVES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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