996
FXUS63 KDDC 172255
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
455 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW MAINLY WEST OF US 83 SATURDAY, WITH ACCUMULATIONS
ONE INCH OR LESS.
- A COLD AIRMASS ARRIVING TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY, ALONG WITH
CONTINUED VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DRIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. NEAR THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS.
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES (20-40%) PICK UP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE SREF INDICATES A BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE COLORADO ROCKIES. NEAR THE SURFACE,
ALTHOUGH MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS BEHIND A COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT
THERE WILL BE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CORE SHORTWAVE ITSELF, AS SUGGESTED BY WEAK QPF SIGNALS
IN EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. EVEN WITH
VERY WEAK H7 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING NOTED BY SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLES,
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT AS A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS TO +100K BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WHERE THE HREF PAINTS A 60 TO 80% PROBABILITY OF SNOWFALL
EXCEEDING A MERE 0.1 OF AN INCH, SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL TENTHS. ISOLATED AREAS
OF NEAR 1 INCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
FORECAST MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER, POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR SURGES
SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN INTO
NORTH TEXAS, DROPPING H85 TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW 0C WITH 10C
BELOW ZERO LIKELY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST HREF SHOWS A 20
TO 40% PROBABILITY OF LOWS DROPPING BELOW 20F IN CENTRAL KANSAS
TO A 30 TO 50% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 25F
FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS REINFORCES AN EXTREMELY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES HOVERING
AROUND TO A LITTLE UNDER 10C BELOW ZERO. WITH THE HREF POINTING
TO A 60 TO 80% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE 20F IN
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO A 40 TO 60% PROBABILITY OF
TOPPING 25F ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LOOK FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 20S(F) IN VICINITY OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER/MID 20S(F) FARTHER SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOW
TO EXIT THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 455 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
STRONG NORTH WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING 35-40 KTS AS OF 23Z WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AT SUNSET, BUT NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT, THROUGH 12Z SAT, GUSTING
TO NEAR 30 KTS. VFR/SKC WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, BUT EXPECT MIDLEVEL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND QUICKLY
AFTER 06Z SAT. OVERCAST MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL, HOWEVER EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO
MVFR AT GCK/LBL AROUND THE 15-18Z SAT TIME RANGE. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF GCK/LBL SATURDAY; KEPT THIS SET OF TAFS
OPTIMISTIC FOR VISIBILITY AT GCK/LBL SATURDAY, ONLY INCLUDING
VCSH AT LBL 15-21Z SAT. SNOW MAY REDUCE VISBILITY MORE THAN THIS
TAF PACKAGE SHOWS FOR GCK/LBL FOR SEVERAL HOURS SATURDAY. NORTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY, GUSTING 25-30 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...TURNER
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