230
FXUS63 KDDC 180434
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1034 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW MAINLY WEST OF US 83 SATURDAY, WITH ACCUMULATIONS
ONE INCH OR LESS.
- A COLD AIRMASS ARRIVING TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY, ALONG WITH
CONTINUED VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DRIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. NEAR THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS.
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES (20-40%) PICK UP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE SREF INDICATES A BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE COLORADO ROCKIES. NEAR THE SURFACE,
ALTHOUGH MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS BEHIND A COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT
THERE WILL BE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CORE SHORTWAVE ITSELF, AS SUGGESTED BY WEAK QPF SIGNALS
IN EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. EVEN WITH
VERY WEAK H7 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING NOTED BY SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLES,
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT AS A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS TO +100K BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WHERE THE HREF PAINTS A 60 TO 80% PROBABILITY OF SNOWFALL
EXCEEDING A MERE 0.1 OF AN INCH, SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL TENTHS. ISOLATED AREAS
OF NEAR 1 INCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
FORECAST MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER, POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR SURGES
SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN INTO
NORTH TEXAS, DROPPING H85 TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW 0C WITH 10C
BELOW ZERO LIKELY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST HREF SHOWS A 20
TO 40% PROBABILITY OF LOWS DROPPING BELOW 20F IN CENTRAL KANSAS
TO A 30 TO 50% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 25F
FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS REINFORCES AN EXTREMELY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES HOVERING
AROUND TO A LITTLE UNDER 10C BELOW ZERO. WITH THE HREF POINTING
TO A 60 TO 80% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE 20F IN
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO A 40 TO 60% PROBABILITY OF
TOPPING 25F ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LOOK FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 20S(F) IN VICINITY OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER/MID 20S(F) FARTHER SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOW
TO EXIT THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PD. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND RELATED MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY
LOWER VIS MAY SPREAD IN ACROSS KGCK AND KLBL TERMINALS LATER TODAY.
OTHERWISE, N WINDS 10-25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...SUGDEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page