152
FXUS63 KDDC 190517
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1117 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SECOND OF TWO DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS COLD PATTERN WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD 1-2" SNOWFALL INCREASINGLY LIKELY (>60% CHANCE)
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.
- ARCTIC FRONT TIMED LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY MONDAY WILL RESULT
IN INCREASED NORTHEAST WINDS AND STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY MONDAY ALONG WITH THE SNOW.
- COLDEST MORNING OF THE YEAR LIKELY FOR MANY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO -15 TO -20F FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
THIS AFTERNOON'S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS REVEALED A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH FOCUSED ON THE CENTRAL TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LARGER SCALE PATTERN WAS A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE PATTERN, MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THIS LED TO THE LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS MAINLY FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY.
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH.
KDOT ROAD CONDITIONS MAPS DID SHOW SOME HIGHWAYS PARTIALLY SNOW-
COVERED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT IMPACTS HAVE BEEN
NEGLIGIBLE.
THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND WE
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS PARTING LATER ON TONIGHT AND WINDS DROPPING OFF AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REACH WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS (ABOVE
ZERO) WITH OUR TRADITIONALLY COLDER AREAS OF THE CWA (I.E. NORTHERN
HAMILTON COUNTY IN PARTICULAR) FLIRTING WITH OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW ZERO (DEGF) FOR LOWS. SINCE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY IN
THE MORNING, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE A LARGE ENOUGH AREA OF SUSTAINED -
10F OR COLDER APPARENT TEMPERATURE VALUES TO WARRANT A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY, SO NO HEADLINE FOR SUCH WILL BE ISSUED.
ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY BUT SURELY CLIMB THROUGH THE
TEENS, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DIRECT INSOLATION. OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE STRAIGHT NBM FAIRLY
CLOSELY. EYES THEN TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE LAST OF TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES INTO OUR AREA OF
THE GREAT PLAINS. THE MONDAY SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER MID-
TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS TO WORK WITH AS THE FLOW FIELD WILL BE
MORE DEFORMED, INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE
800-600MB LAYER. THE SUSTAINED LIFT WILL ALLOW SATURATION TO OCCUR
FAIRLY EASILY GIVEN HOW COLD THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE, AND WE WILL SEE
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP NOT TOO LONG AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. AS THE AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS, WE WILL ALSO BE SEEING A RENEWED SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PLATEAU
OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE TEENS DURING THE DAY. MONDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE WINTER AROUND HERE WITH PROBABLY OUR COLDEST
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER THUS FAR.
AS FAR AS ACCUMULATING SNOW IS CONCERNED, THE AXIS NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FROM ROUGHLY SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO MEDICINE LODGE
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF 2"+ SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM MAINLY 0.10 TO
0.15" QPF (40-70% MEMBERSHIP OF THE 100-MEMBER GRAND ENSEMBLE). MOST
OF THE SNOW RATIO GUIDANCE SUPPORT A 16 TO 20:1 SLR. WE MAY ALSO BE
SEEING A SLIGHT BUMP IN THE NORTHEAST WINDS WITH THE PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE ARCTIC SURGE, AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO BLOW THE
POWDERY SNOW AROUND. THIS DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE THE TYPE OF EVENT TO
SUPPORT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT SINCE MONDAY IS 4TH PERIOD
FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST CYCLE, WE WILL DEFER THE DECISION TO
HOIST A HEADLINE TO THE MID SHIFT AS WE GAIN MORE CONFIDENCE IN HOW
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN INCH AND A HALF OR MORE OF
SNOWFALL.
FINALLY, TUESDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
WINTER SEASON, AS INDICATIONS ARE THAT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR FOLLOWING MONDAY'S STORM SYSTEM. A FRESH SNOW PACK
OF A COUPLE INCHES WILL AID IN SUPPORTING TUESDAY MORNING LOWS DOWN
INTO NEGATIVE NUMBERS (DEGF) FOR A GOOD PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THANKFULLY, THE CORE OF THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW REPLACING THIS
AIR MASS MID-WEEK. WE SHOULD RETURN BACK TO OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMAL NUMBERS OF LOWER 40S HIGHS AND UPPER TEENS LOWS MID TO LATE
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
IN GENERAL THE TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY. THERE
IS A 20% CHANCE OF MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AT HYS BETWEEN 09-15Z AS
WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY STRATUS DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY UNDER 15 KTS DURING
THE TIME PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...TATRO
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