433
FXUS63 KDDC 192154
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
354 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY TIED
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR -10 TO -17F WIND
CHILLS.
- LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL ON TRACK, HOWEVER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED SOME IN THE FORECAST TO MAINLY AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A HALF SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER.
- EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WIND CHILLS DOWN TO AS LOW AS -20F, ESPECIALLY FAR WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH ADDED IMPACT FROM BREEZY NORTH WIND TOMORROW
MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW.
MID AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IDAHO AND WYOMING INTO UTAH AND COLORADO.
INITIAL MID-TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS WAS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WYOMING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WAS
SHOWING WEAK REFLECTIVITY FORMING ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE TIED TO
THIS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THE ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT, REACHING WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WHICH IS WHEN OUR LIGHT SNOW EVENT WILL UNFOLD.
NEARLY ALL MODELS HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON QPF AND SHIFTED HEAVIER
QPF JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, THUS PREVIOUS FORECASTS OF 2"+ WILL BE
CUT BACK TO AROUND AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF, GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR THE SNOW ON THIS SHIFT.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE CONCERNED, NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DRIVE ARCTIC AIR FARTHER SOUTH IN THE MORNING,
AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS (ABOVE ZERO) FOR A LONGER DURATION OF TIME IN THE MORNING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH THE ADDED NORTHEAST WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH
(HIGHER GUSTS) ARE LIKELY TO PUSH WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES DOWN INTO
THE -10 TO -17F RANGE, WHICH WILL REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS MID-LATE MORNING WILL PROMOTE
SOME LIGHT BLOWING AND DRIFTING AS WELL, GIVEN HOW DRY THE SNOW WILL
BE AND EASE TO BLOW AROUND IN THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE NORTH
WIND 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS DOWN BELOW
ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY CALM DOWN
IN THE EVENING, AND WITH A CLEARING SKY, AND FRESH SNOW PACK (ALBEIT
LIGHT), IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY PUSH WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -15 TO -20F AROUND DAYBREAK
TUESDAY, THUS WE WILL KEEP THE EXTREME COLD WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY BE NEEDED
WHICH THE MID SHIFT CAN GIVE ANOTHER LOOK.
ON TUESDAY AND BEYOND, OUR DOWNSLOPE PATTERN WILL RETURN, QUICKLY
ERADICATING THE ARCTIC AIR MASS. WARMING POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED,
INITIALLY, GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO, HOWEVER THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY "SNOW EATER"
DOWNSLOPE WINDS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REALLY WORK ON
MELTING MUCH OF THIS SNOW COVER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
AVIATION WEATHER WILL BE GOOD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DETERIORATE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY AS LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. FLIGHT
CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS DURING THE SNOW BEFORE IMPROVING SHORTLY AFTER THE END OF
THIS TAF PERIOD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM CST /1 AM MST/ TO NOON CST /11
AM MST/ MONDAY FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST
/5 PM MST/ MONDAY FOR KSZ043>045-061>064-074>081-084>090.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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