427
FXUS63 KDDC 200520
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1120 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY TIED
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR -10 TO -17F WIND
CHILLS.
- LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL ON TRACK, HOWEVER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED SOME IN THE FORECAST TO MAINLY AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A HALF SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER.
- EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WIND CHILLS DOWN TO AS LOW AS -20F, ESPECIALLY FAR WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH ADDED IMPACT FROM BREEZY NORTH WIND
TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW.
MID AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IDAHO AND WYOMING INTO UTAH AND COLORADO.
INITIAL MID-TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS WAS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WYOMING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WAS
SHOWING WEAK REFLECTIVITY FORMING ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE TIED TO
THIS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THE ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT, REACHING WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WHICH IS WHEN OUR LIGHT SNOW EVENT WILL UNFOLD.
NEARLY ALL MODELS HAVE PULLED BACK SOME ON QPF AND SHIFTED HEAVIER
QPF JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, THUS PREVIOUS FORECASTS OF 2"+ WILL BE
CUT BACK TO AROUND AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF, GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR THE SNOW ON THIS SHIFT.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE CONCERNED, NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DRIVE ARCTIC AIR FARTHER SOUTH IN THE MORNING,
AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS (ABOVE ZERO) FOR A LONGER DURATION OF TIME IN THE MORNING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH THE ADDED NORTHEAST WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH
(HIGHER GUSTS) ARE LIKELY TO PUSH WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES DOWN INTO
THE -10 TO -17F RANGE, WHICH WILL REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS MID-LATE MORNING WILL PROMOTE
SOME LIGHT BLOWING AND DRIFTING AS WELL, GIVEN HOW DRY THE SNOW WILL
BE AND EASE TO BLOW AROUND IN THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE NORTH
WIND 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS DOWN BELOW
ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY CALM DOWN
IN THE EVENING, AND WITH A CLEARING SKY, AND FRESH SNOW PACK (ALBEIT
LIGHT), IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY PUSH WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -15 TO -20F AROUND DAYBREAK
TUESDAY, THUS WE WILL KEEP THE EXTREME COLD WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY BE NEEDED
WHICH THE MID SHIFT CAN GIVE ANOTHER LOOK.
ON TUESDAY AND BEYOND, OUR DOWNSLOPE PATTERN WILL RETURN, QUICKLY
ERADICATING THE ARCTIC AIR MASS. WARMING POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED,
INITIALLY, GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO, HOWEVER THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY "SNOW EATER"
DOWNSLOPE WINDS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REALLY WORK ON
MELTING MUCH OF THIS SNOW COVER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP AROUND GCK AND DDC BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AND MOVE
TOWARDS LBL AROUND 12Z. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY HOWEVER WITH SNOW AND WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25
KTS AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PASSES WE COULD SEE SURFACE VISIBILITIES
DIP TO 1-2 SM AT TIMES WHICH WOULD BRING IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
INTO PLAY. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH BETWEEN 20-00Z AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. SKIES
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AND WE SHOULD HAVE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR
ALL TERMINALS AFTER 00Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST
/5 PM MST/ MONDAY FOR KSZ043>045-061>064-074>081-084>090.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...TATRO
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