356
FXUS63 KDDC 201102
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
502 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW TODAY MAINLY BETWEEN SUNRISE AND 3 PM
- ACCUMULATION TRENDS WITH THE SNOW HAVE GONE DOWN WITH 1-2 INCHES
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR
- COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TUESDAY MORNING WITH AIR TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW 0 AND WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -20 TO -25 BELOW IN PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED IN CENTRAL ONTARIO. A 500-700 MB SHORTWAVE HAS
DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION IN THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS DUE TO PVA MOVING IN FROM EASTERN COLORADO. A
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH IS IN EASTERN KANSAS WITH AN APPROACHING
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM EASTERN COLORADO.
TODAY THE FORECAST TREND CONTINUES WITH THE LOCATION OF SNOW AND
AMOUNTS. THE BEST LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LOOKS TO BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH SATURATION OCCURRING SHORTLY
BEFORE SUNRISE. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST KANSAS MAINLY
THROUGH THE MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE THE UPPER WAVE AND LIFT EXITING KANSAS AROUND 4 PM. ENSEMBLES
SHOW THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOW CONTINUES TO
BE ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER SOUTH TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH UP TO
2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE RED HILLS. THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND WE
SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 WHICH COULD
LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW. THE SLR VALUES FOR SNOW CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
16-18:1 INCH RANGE WHICH WOULD MEAN DRY POWDERY SNOW AND WITH THE
WIND COULD LEAD TO SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY ISSUES ALONG WITH MINOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR AND REMOVE SCOTT, LANE,
AND NESS AS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 0.5 INCH.
TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ANOMOLOUSLY STRONG HIGH MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES, THE WINDS DIE DOWN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET, AND GOOD COOLING WITH THE SNOWPACK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRASH TO BELOW 0 ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
AND NBM PROBABILITIES OF MINT GOING BELOW 0 IS HIGH (70-100%). I
ALONG WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TRENDED TOWARDS THE NBM25TH
PERCENTILE FOR LOWS AS A RESULT. TOWARDS MORNING AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO WE COULD SEE WINDS
START TO INCREASE A BIT IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TO 5-15 MPH AND WITH
AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 WE COULD SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 OR
BELOW RANGE. HENCE AN EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF K-25 AND THE REST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY WE SHOULD START TO SEE A WARMING TREND AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND WITH DOWNSLOPING WE SHOULD SEE THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES KEEP
US DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND WARMER
OVER TIME AS WE COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS AROUND 12Z. CLOUD
CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY HOWEVER WITH SNOW
AND WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PASSES WE
COULD SEE SURFACE VISIBILITIES DIP TO 1-2 SM AT TIMES WHICH
WOULD BRING IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY INTO PLAY. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 20-00Z AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AND WE
SHOULD HAVE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 00Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-063>066-076>081-086>090.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ061>064-074>081-084>090.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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