875
FXUS63 KDDC 202201
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
401 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MEDICINE
LODGE AREA AND NEAR THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
- WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -20 TO -25 BELOW IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD
CAUSE FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
LIGHT RADAR REFLECTIVITY SOUTH AND EAST OF DDC CONTINUED TO
INDICATE LIGHT SNOW, FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE
NORTHEAST OK AND TX PANHANDLE REGION AS OF 3:30 PM. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH NEAR SURFACE TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT WITH TIME INTO NORTHER OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED OF FALL IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA AS WELL
– SO OUT SOUTH EAST COUNTIES COMANCHE BARBER AND PRATT, AS WELL
AS A FEW ALONG THE OK LINE WEST T LIBERAL WERE RETAINED IN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE NORMAL VALID TIME, WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF IT WAS JUST CANCELED. COLD AIR SETTLING IN TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY IS NOT BREAKING NEWS AT THIS POINT, AND THE
HEADLINES REMAINS FOR EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACTS/RISK OF FROSTBITE
AND HYPOTHERMIA IN UNDER 30 MINUTES FOR THIS AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 TONIGHT TUESDAY MORNING – WIND CHILLS CAN REACH OR
GET COLDER THAN -20F THOUGH ABOUT 9 AM (WHEN THE SUN STARTS
WORKING ON SURFACE).
A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED SYNOPTIC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW MEXICO WILL REACH THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT OF THE INITIAL PLUNGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN STATES, A RESPONSE OF SURFACE TOUGHING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS.
THE MINOR REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
SHOWN BY ALL OF THE MODELS TUESDAY NIGHT – PLUNGING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS BACK INTO 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM – 5 C
TO AS COLD AS -10C NEAR HAYS AND GREAT BEND. .
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE 3 MAJOR GLOBAL SPECTRAL
MODELS CONTINUE T SHOW A PATTERN OF REDEVELOPING WEST COAST
POSITIVELY TILED TROUGHS , SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONTINENTAL COLD AIR TO PLUNGER
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S FOR
HIGHS ARE ABOUT AS WARM AS WE WILL SEE THOUGH THE 7 DAY
FORECAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY WHERE THE NBM SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES FROM UPPER 40S NEAR HAYS TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE NW
TX/OK PANHANDLES/ELKHART REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FORCING FOR
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH TIME. FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS, THE
TERMINALS MOST IMPACTED WITH RESTRICTED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIBERAL AND DODGE CITY. CLEARING CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNSET, AS WINDS FALL FROM THE
GUSTY 15-25 KNOTS RANGE TO LIGHT (UNDER 10 KNOTS) NORTHERLY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-063>066-076>081-086>090.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ079>081-086>090.
DISCUSSION...RUSSELL
AVIATION...MR
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