942
FXUS63 KDDC 211457
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
857 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ARCTIC AIR EXITS THROUGH THE DAY AND MORE TEMPERATE TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
- MAINLY DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 856 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
HEADLINES FOR COLD IMPACTS WILL REMAIN INTACT UNTIL AT LEAST 10
OR 11 AM GIVEN THE OVERALL TRENDS ON THE HRRR APPARENT
TEMPERATURE FIELDS. MOST RECENT 14Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWED
APPARENT TEMPERATURES BETWEEN ABOUT -18 AND -21 OVER THE ENTIRE
DDC AREA WITH A COLDER POCKET IN THE ARK VALLEY OUT NEAR
SYRACUSE (AROUND -30F !). REAL TEMPS HAVE BUMPED ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES UNDER FULL INSOLATION COMING INTO THE 15Z HOUR -
BEGINNING TO PUT A DOWNWARD TREND ON THE WIND CHILLS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WELL
ADVERTISED ARCTIC AIR MASS CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. PRETTY MUCH
EVERYWHERE IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS HAS SEEN AIR TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
0 AND WIND CHILLS IN THE -10 TO -25 RANGE.
THROUGHOUT TODAY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
ALLOW WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND EJECT THE COLDEST
AIR TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL STILL STAY FAIRLY COLD IN THE
EAST AS THE COLDEST AIR TAKES THE LONGEST TO LEAVE SO HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 30S AND TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR 40 IN THE FAR WEST WHERE
THE MILDEST AIR WILL BE FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME.
OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD STAY IN A DRY REGIME WITH
ENSEMBLES SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS STAYING MAINLY IN A TROUGH
PATTERN IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE IN THE WEST. A SERIES OF
TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AND WILL MAINLY JUST BRING IN DRY PASSAGES OF COLD FRONTS AND
INCREASED POST FRONTAL WINDS. THE FIRST FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
AND A SECOND ONE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO BRIEF WARMER DAYS
ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AND COOLER DAYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS ON THE
COOLER DAYS WILL BE IN THE 30S. WEDNESDAY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD BECOME GUSTY AT 20-35 MPH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 449 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z AND WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS BETWEEN 18Z-00Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-063>066-076>081-086>090.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
UPDATE...RUSSELL
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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