503
FXUS63 KDDC 220803
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
203 AM CST WED JAN 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
- AN OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST WED JAN 22 2025
08Z SURFACE OBSERVATION AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH A DEVELOPING JET
STREAK IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST IN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE A 1015 SURFACE LOW HAS
DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST COLROADO WITH SURFACE WINDS COMING IN OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE TIGHTENED AND WE SHOULD SEE
SURFACE WINDS REACT ACCORDINGLY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS LOOK COMMON ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE MID
MORNING HOURS UNTIL SUNSET. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL MEAN THE
FROPA SHOULD BE DRY. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL LAG UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SO WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS GET TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE WILL START OUT CLEAR BUT THEN
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD COME IN WITH ANOTHER
POSITIVE TILT TROUGH AND 700 MB SHORTWAVE COMING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO SHOW MOSTLY DRY
OUTPUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A HANDFUL OF SOLUTIONS SHOWING
MINOR AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION NEXT MONDAY. THE OVERALL UPPER AIR
PATTERN CONTINUES TO STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL NEXT MONDAY WHERE
A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL JET DEVELOPS AND AN UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE IN
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS NEXT LOW WILL
GIVE US PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS
BETWEEN 15-00Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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