615
FXUS63 KDDC 152311
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
511 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- 20-30% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WEST OF LIBERAL BUT NO
MEASURABLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL >4 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 AS
FAR SOUTH AS LARNED AND STAFFORD.
- RECORD BREAKING COLD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
EARLIER THIS MORNING A 500 MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO NEW MEXICO WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVED SOUTH
OUT OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THE LIGHT SNOW THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SKIES GRADUALLY
CLEARING AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT, A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL BRING A 20-30% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WEST OF
LIBERAL. NO MEASURABLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS TODAY ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND PREVIOUS RUNS IN DEVELOPING
AN AREA OF STEADY SNOW ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS
STILL FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, HIGH SNOW RATIOS (15:1 TO 18:1) AND
ENHANCED DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET THERE IS
AT LEAST A 30-50% CHANCE THAT THIS BAND OF STEADIER SNOW COULD
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL (>4 INCHES) NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
DESPITE THIS AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THIS AREA OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WE WILL STILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS CLOSELY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOUTHWARD SHIFT,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. REASON FOR THE CONCERN ON THIS
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS THAT THE LATEST SREF SUGGESTS ENHANCED LIFT
THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING BY EARLY TUESDAYS DUE TO 850 MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS AN 850 MB LOW FORMS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF A FURTHER
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN HEAVIER SNOWFALL REMAINS LOW (10%), THE
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS.
AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF WHERE
THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE AND AFTER GOOD COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES, WE HAVE DECIDED TO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS STRONGLY RECOMMEND THAT
ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM. THE WSSI HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
DUE TO SNOWFALL.
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL, A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (+90%) THAT THIS AIR MASS INVADING WESTERN
KANSAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL DELIVER SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WESTERN KANSAS HAS EXPERIENCED IN QUITE SOME TIME.
THIS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
TUESDAY, BUT ITS TRUE IMPACTS WILL BE FELT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SNOW ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR. THE CURRENT
FORECAST ALREADY IS FORECASTING LOWS BETWEEN -5F AND -15F
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING. THESE CURRENT FORECAST
LOWS WILL SET/SHATTER RECORD LOWS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BOTH
DAYS. WIND CHILLS BOTH MORNING WILL BE AT LOW AS 20-25 BELOW
ZERO. THERE IS EVEN A 30-40% CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS,
PARTICULARLY WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL OCCURS, COULD SEE LOWS
DROP BELOW -15F WHICH WOULD SHATTER THE PREVIOUS LOWS IN SOME
LOCATION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WILL ONLY REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS AS LOW AS ZERO TO -10. AT DODGE
CITY THE RECORD LOW FOR 2/19 IS -5 AND 2/20 IT IS -2.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AROUND GCK, DDC, AND HYS SHOULD KEEP
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN THE MVFR RANGE AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z. WINDS
WILL ALSO STAY BREEZY THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS AT 15-20 KT
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN WE SHOULD SEE SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY AND WINDS DIMINISH TO BELOW
15 KTS AFTER 09Z AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TIME
PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...TATRO
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