542
FXUS63 KDDC 160900
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW CHANCES (60-90%) RETURN TO CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARRIVING MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE SREF
POINTS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS LATE TODAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WHILE MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER/MID LEVELS DOMINATES THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. SNOW CHANCES (60-
90%) RETURN MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, SETTING UP AN INCREASINGLY
DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM, ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH PROJECTED POST-FRONTAL H7
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT, THEN DEVELOPING EAST INTO EASTERN
KANSAS TUESDAY. WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM AS HINTED AT BY QPF FIELDS SIGNALING A ONE-QUARTER
INCH OR SO, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
THE LATEST LREF PAINTS AN 80-90% PROBABILITY OF 24-HR SNOW AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH MUCH LESS EXPECTED IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE THERE IS ONLY A 30-40% PROBABILITY
OF AMOUNTS EVEN TOPPING 1 INCH.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY AS A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE EDGES EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS,
REINFORCING THE COLDER AIRMASS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES NUDGING UP TO AROUND 10C BELOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NEAR 0C IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE HREF SUGGESTS A DECENT RANGE
OF HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 20-40% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES
EDGING ABOVE 30F IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO A 70-90%
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 40F CLOSER TO THE COLORADO
BORDER IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. FAIRLY SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS TUESDAY, DROPPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. EXTREME
COLD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT
HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH
THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. IT'S HERE THE LATEST
LREF INDICATES BETTER THAN A 90% PROBABILITY OF WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES DROPPING UNDER 15F BELOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LIKELY ISSUING WATCH HEADLINES
IN ACCORDANCE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
LINGERING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
LEVEL STRATUS WILL SLOWLY ERODE WEST TO EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING, GIVING WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE
GENERALLY AFTER 12-14Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-064>066-079.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ061>063-074>078-080-081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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