544
FXUS63 KDDC 170505
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1105 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE FOR SNOW TOTALS TO BE GREATER THAN 4
INCHES EAST OF A MEDICINE LODGE TO JETMORE TO DIGHTON LINE.
- EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
TODAY WITH AN AREA OF STEADY SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT ALONG
A REGION OF IMPROVING FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OVER 50% OF MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
KEEP THIS FEATURE NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR MONDAY NIGHT, BUT
SEVERAL SHORTER TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS BANDED PRECIPITATION
MAY DEVELOP SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH, CLOSER TO THE NESS CITY AND
LARNED AREAS. GIVEN THIS GROWING DISAGREEMENT IN LOCATION,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF WHERE THIS
AREA OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. EVEN GIVEN DISAGREEMENT IN
THE LOCATION THESE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATED ENHANCED LIFT
AND HIGH SNOW RATIOS WITHIN THIS BAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THIS RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT
IN ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THERE IS STILL A
>70% CHANCE OF SNOWFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES.
ADDITIONALLY WE ARE MONITORING ANOTHER AREA OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS,
INCLUDING THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS. THE PROBABILITY OF
SNOWFALL EXCEEDING 4 INCHES HAS INCREASED TO 60% DUE TO
STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN
OF 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
THIS IMPROVING LIFT AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FORECAST ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS SUPPORTS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS NOW FORECAST
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BOTH OF THESE AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
UNDER A WINTER STORM WATCH.
IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL, GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO
30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THESE INCREASING
WINDS WILL NOT ONLY CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW BUT WILL ALSO HELP SPREAD DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
AS FOR THIS DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR MASS...ENSEMBLES CLUSTERS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE ECWMF EFI/SOT ONCE AGAIN TODAY
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL OF A EXTREME COLD EVENT FOR
TEMPERATURES MID WEEK. THIS SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE (90%) IN
TEMPERATURES BEING AT LEAST AS COLD AS THE NBM FORECAST WITH A
40-60% CHANCE OF LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEING
EVEN A LITTLE COLDER. THIS BITTER COLD AIR MASS WILL INVADE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS
BOTTOMING OUR BETWEEN 5 AND -5 DEGREES. AFTER THIS GIVEN CLOUD
COVER/SNOWFALL AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY LITTLE
DIURNAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
CHILLS OF -10 OR COLDER ARE LIKELY BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND THEN
BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TUESDAY. THE COLDEST AIR FROM THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS THIS
DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. DURING THIS TIME FRAME THOSE IN SOUTHWEST
KANSAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGHS MID WEEK ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND RECORD BREAKING LOWS OF ZERO TO -10F. ALSO WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS -25F OR COLDER WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A EXTREME COLD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ANYONE VENTURING OUT NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. REMEMBER, FROSTBITE
CAN DEVELOP ON EXPOSED SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES WHEN WIND
CHILLS REACH -25F.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH LATE MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 20KT GENERALLY
AFTER 18-20Z AS A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTERLY
15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SINKS
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ030-031-045-046-064>066-079>081-090.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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