417
FXUS63 KDDC 170810
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
210 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW CHANCES (60-90%) STILL ON PACE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
SNOW CHANCES (60-90%) TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE SREF INDICATES AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION, SETTING UP
AN INTENSIFYING (+100KT) WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM, ARCTIC AIR
WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS DOWN INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. SNOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY EVENING/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS A MULTITUDE OF H5 VORT MAXIMA EJECTING OUT OF THE
COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, BEGIN INTERACTING
WITH A FIELD OF POST-FRONTAL H7 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING PROJECTED TO
DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. ANY SNOW DEVELOPMENT IS
THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH ASSOCIATED
H7 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INITIALLY
WHERE 6-HR QPF FIELDS SIGNAL IN EXCESS OF A 0.25 OF AN INCH, TO
FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TUESDAY WHERE THE LATEST
HREF PAINTS AN 80-90% PROBABILITY OF 24-HR SNOW AMOUNTS EXCEEDING
2 INCHES BY TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE THERE IS ONLY A 10-20% PROBABILITY OF AMOUNTS
EVEN EXCEEDING 1 INCH.
WIDE RANGING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY AS AN ARCTIC HIGH SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS HELPS PUSH A COLDER AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY LATE-AFTERNOON, DROPPING H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND
10C BELOW WHILE H85 TEMPERATURES HOLD TO AROUND 0C TO A LITTLE ABOVE
0C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH THE HREF SHOWING A 50-70%
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 25F IN VICINITY OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR TO A 80-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES TOPPING 45F IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS, A WIDE RANGE OF AFTERNOON HIGHS CAN BE
EXPECTED, GENERALLY FROM THE 20S(F) NORTH TO HIGHS POSSIBLY PUSHING
50F IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. EXTREME COLD AIR SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND 15C BELOW TO 18C BELOW.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS(F)
IN VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE THE HREF PAINTS ONLY A 20-30%
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE 5F TO A 70-80% PROBABILITY
OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 10F IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS
ARE NOT FORECAST TO CLIMB MUCH AT ALL WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS(F) NORTH TO POSSIBLY THE TEENS(F) CLOSER
TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. WITH TEMPERATURES SO COLD, EVEN BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HELP PRODUCE WIND CHILLS WELL UNDER 15F
BELOW TO NEAR 25F BELOW FOR A GOOD PART OF THE TIME TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH LATE MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 20KT GENERALLY
AFTER 18-20Z AS A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTERLY
15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SINKS
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ030-031-045-046-064>066-079>081-090.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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