431
FXUS63 KDDC 172305
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
505 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. OVER A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 6
INCHES OR MORE EXPECTED IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING. 2-5 INCHES
EXPECTED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
- EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND NEGATIVE
20S.
- WARMUP EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK TO BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. SNOW WILL THEN COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
TOMORROW. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SNOW TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES AS A SECONDARY WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THAT
AREA WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE LIGHTEST ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE
A TRACE TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AS
YOU HEAD FARTHER EAST WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
AND ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST NBM RUN SHOWS OVER A 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 6 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE THE CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNING IS LOCATED. 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
THE AREAS WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW
ENSEMBLE MODELS STARTING TO SHOW A CHANCE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST WILL BE THE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG
ARCTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING IN
AMPLE COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO DIP INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS TO AROUND -20 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE TEENS MAY BE REACHED. THE
ARCTIC BLAST CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE LOWS WILL DIP INTO
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
THOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE IN SPEED, WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE -20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MANY
PLACES PROBABLY DIPPING TO AROUND -25 RANGE. COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE YEAR LOOKS TO BE
THURSDAY MORNING WHERE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED WITH
NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS
WILL BE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS THURSDAY
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SOUTH WHICH LOOKS TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AS OF NOW, HIGHS THURSDAY LOOK TO RANGE
FROM THE TEENS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS MAY REACH AROUND 30 DEGREES. ANOTHER COLD
MORNING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.
THIS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
TO NEGATIVE TEENS, DEPENDING ON WIND SPEEDS. ENSEMBLE MODELS THEN
DEPICT A NICE WARMUP FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH 60S POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW MELTS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERALL. A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE TERMINALS BEGINNING BY MIDNIGHT, PEAK IN THE 09-12Z TIMEFRAME,
AND GRADUALLY TAPER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. A COMBINATION OF IFR
TO LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL DEGRADE, PARTICULARLY IN BETWEEN 06Z AND
15Z AS THE WORST OF THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE SNOW BAND
MOVES THROUGH. BLSN IS EXPECTED AS NE WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 15 TO
20 KT. THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER,
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-
074>081-084>090.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ030-031-045-046-064>066-079>081-090.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ043-044-063-077-078-088-089.
DISCUSSION...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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