417
FXUS63 KDDC 180817
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
217 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW CHANCES (50-80%) CONTINUE TODAY.
- EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CARVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS/CAMS, AREAS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER
DEVELOP, SPREADING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH LATE MORNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A BAND OF H7
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTH TEXAS WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST
INTO OKLAHOMA. FARTHER WEST, ANY LINGERING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW
THROUGH LATE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WEST TO EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
QUICKLY KICKS OFF TO THE EAST. THE HREF PAINTS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE THERE IS A 40-60% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR SNOWFALL EXCEEDING
2 INCHES BY LATE MORNING WITH A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF SNOWFALL
EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE KICKS FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A COLDER AND VERY
DRY AIRMASS SPREADS SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS.
EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE TODAY AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO WESTERN KANSAS, LOWERING H85 TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO AROUND 15C BELOW TO 18C BELOW. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB
MUCH ABOVE 0F IN VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH THE HREF SHOWING
ONLY A 10% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 5F TO AN 80-90%
PROBABILITY OF HIGHS PUSHING ABOVE 10F IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES MAY BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH THE HREF INDICATING ONLY A 30% PROBABILITY
OF HIGHS EXCEEDING 10F IN CENTRAL KANSAS, ESPECIALLY WITH LINGERING
SNOWPACK, TO A 70-80% PROBABILITY OF NUDGING ABOVE 15F IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB THURSDAY, BUT
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL STRATUS WITH ASSOCIATED AREAS OF LIGHT/MODERATE
SNOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING. SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
LINGERING FROM PREVAILING LOW LEVEL STRATUS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-079>081-090.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ043-
044-063-077-078-088-089.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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