565
FXUS63 KDDC 191100
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY.
- A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF WEAK RIDGING TRANSITIONING EAST
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
COLD BUT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE
SREF INDICATES WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BREAKING DOWN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
THE COLORADO ROCKIES TODAY, AND FARTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT. WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS, PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ABSENT
FROM THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REINFORCE AN EXTREMELY
COLD AIRMASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES HOVERING
AROUND 20C BELOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C BELOW IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE LATEST HREF SHOWS A 60-70% PROBABILITY OF
AFTERNOON HIGHS EXCEEDING 5F IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO AN 80-90%
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE 10F IN FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS(F),
MAINLY WHERE AREAS OF SNOWPACK REMAIN IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, TO POSSIBLY THE LOWER TEENS(F) OUT NEAR THE
COLORADO LINE WHERE LESS SNOW FELL. A 'WARMING' TREND CONTINUES
THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PUSHING THE LOWER/MID TEENS(F)
(DEPENDING ON LINGERING SNOWPACK) IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE 20S(F) FARTHER SOUTHWEST. FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS NOT QUITE REACHING THE FREEZING MARK CLOSER TO THE I-70
CORRIDOR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
LINGERING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND POCKETS
OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING AS LIGHT SNOW DISSIPATES WHILE LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LIFTS/SCATTERS OUT. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EASTERLY THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ031-046-065-066-079>081-090.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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