361
FXUS63 KDDC 200802
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
202 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STILL COLD TODAY, SLOW WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.1-0.5 INCH (50%
PROBABILITY) MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON FRIDAY MORNING
- HIGHER PROBABILITY OF 70 DEGREE HIGHS ON MONDAY (50-70%)
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
07Z SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ARCTIC 1040 MB HIGH
CENTERED IN NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH IN EASTERN
COLORADO. A MILD RIDGE IS DEVELOPING IN THE COLORADO ROCKIES WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA.
TODAY WE SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH SOME
MODEST WARMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HREF MODELS SHOW ONLY ABOUT A
2 (C) WARMING TREND IN THE 850 MB LEVELS AND WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WE WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COME IN THE AFTERNOON TO
ALSO MITIGATE SOME OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. WE SHOULD WARM INTO
DOUBLE DIGIT HIGHS AS NBM GUIDANCE HAS MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AND 20S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS HANGS OUT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WITH AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. HREF MODELS HAVE THE SHORTWAVE ENTERING WESTERN KANSAS
AROUND MIDNIGHT AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY AND WITH THE FGEN BAND
DEVELOPING IN THE 700 MB LEVELS AND PVA WITH THE TROUGH WHICH IS
FORECAST TO TURN INTO A CLOSED LOW WITH THE MOMENTUM OF THE JET
STREAK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP MAINLY
IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND WE COULD SEE SOME POCKETS
OF LIGHT SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 50. QPF OUTPUT IS ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AND WITH NBM SLR AT 15:1 THIS WOULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.1-0.5 INCH. THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE AN
IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM AT THIS POINT.
LREF TRENDS HAVE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS LEAVING BY SATURDAY WITH
WESTERLY WINDS AND A DEVELOPING RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND HIGHLIGHTING THE RETURN OF 70
DEGREE WEATHER ON MONDAY AS NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS 50-70% PROBABILITY OF
HIGHS GREATER THAN 70 ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WE SHOULD ALSO STAY
IN A FAIRLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH NO HINT OF A SYSTEM OR
PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN A LEE
SIDE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL LEAD TO BREEZY WINDS FOR
GCK AND LBL WHICH COULD LEAD TO 10-20 KT WINDS BETWEEN 18-00Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page