575
FXUS63 KDDC 210514
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1114 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 10 TO 18 DEGREES BELOW ZERO CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- A 20-30% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
A BITTERLY COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY, WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER UTAH AND NEVADA. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WITH COLD AIR LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT DUE TO
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RECIRCULATING AROUND THIS BITTERLY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WITH INCREASING WINDS...CONDITIONS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND CHILL VALUES TO DROP INTO
THE -10 TO -18 RANGE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BASED ON THIS
WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THESE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS, THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20-40%) OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE AREA MOST FAVORABLE FOR THIS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY, THEN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON
FRIDAY. NOT ONLY IS THE PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
LOW AHEAD OF THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUT ANY SNOWFALL THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE LITTLE ACCUMULATION. CHANCE FOR SNOW
>0.1 IS 40-60% IN AREAS THAT DO SEE THE LIGHT SNOW. CHANCE FOR
SNOW >1" IS LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
THIS SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES, ALLOWING
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS THE ONGOING
DRY FORECAST AND A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
OVER THE WEEKEND WE WILL BE MONITORING HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW
MELTS AS THIS WILL BE KEY TO DETERMINING HOW SOON TEMPERATURES
REBOUND TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AREAS
WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER WILL HAVE A GREATER THAN 80% CHANCE
OF REACHING THE 50S AND 60S, WHILE TEMPERATURES OVER LINGERING
SNOWPACK WILL BE AROUND 10 COOLER. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND, WITH THE NBM INDICATING AN >80%
CHANCE OF HIGHS EXCEEDING 60 DEGREES WEST OF A MEDICINE LODGE TO
ELLIS LINE. EVEN THE COOLER NBM 25TH PERCENTILE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 60 TO 65 WEST OF THIS LINE.
OF THESE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, MONDAY AND TUESDAY APPEAR TO BE THE
WARMEST. ON MONDAY AREAS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS MAY SEE HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S IF THE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FORECASTED BY THE NBM
VERIFIES. CURRENT ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST THIS IS LIKELY
(60-80%), BASED ON THE LATEST WARMING TRENDS IN THE LREF
CLUSTERS, SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE
GUIDANCE, AND STRONG RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. ALSO JUST LIKE SUNDAY THE COOLER NBM/LREF
25TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY RANGED FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES HOWEVER APPEAR TO BE WILL
BE SHORT LIVED. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS AROUND WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A RETURN TO COLDER, MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. STILL WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR (40S/50S) IT IS NOT THAT BAD COMPARED TO THE EXTREME
COLD CONDITIONS WE HAD EARLY THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD. A
QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL COME THROUGH NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR GCK AND HYS BETWEEN 12-20Z. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 10-20 KT RANGE BETWEEN 18-00Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...TATRO
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