895
FXUS63 KDDC 210816
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
216 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES
- ARCTIC AIR SLOWLY MODERATES TODAY AND THEN WARMER AIR ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND
- DRY AND WARMER FOR NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
08Z SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL COMPACT
CLOSED LOW CENTERED IN CENTRAL COLORADO WITH AN AREA OF LIFT IN
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH HAS LED TO A POCKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
JUST WEST OF THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER FROM LA JUNTA TO CHEYENNE
WELLS, COLORADO. A LARGE 1039 SURFACE HIGH WITH ASSOCIATED ARCTIC
AIR IS CENTERED IN WESTERN MISSOURI.
TODAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND WITH THE
ASSOCIATED LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WE SHOULD SEE A
POCKET OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH
THE GREATEST ODDS OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF K-96. THE
QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE LOW ALONG WITH SOME WEAKENING LATER
IN THE DAY IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENTIC LIFT WILL
PROVIDE AROUND A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW. MOST
PROBABILITIES FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOW 40-50% PROBABILITY OF AT
LEAST 0.1 INCH OF SNOW AND 5-10% PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH OF SNOW.
THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF IMPACTS WHEN THE SNOW FALLS BUT
OVERALL THIS WINTER SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD.
THE ARCTIC AIR WILL HANG AROUND TODAY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY MODESTLY WARM 1-2 (C) THROUGH THE
DAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES EASTWARD STRONGER DOWNSLOPING WINDS ENTER INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO 5-7 (C) BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE START OF
A WARMING TREND AS LREF ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTERS BOTH SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS WE HAVE A
60-90% CHANCE OF HIGHS GREATER THAN 70 DEGREES. A COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT THE AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FRONTS DON'T LOOK TO HAVE AN ARCTIC COMPONENT TO
THEM SO WE WON'T SEE A DRAMATIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES. WE ALSO
HAVE LOW PROBABILITIES OF ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE MAJORITY OF THE 100 MEMBER ENSEMBLE IN THE LREF
HAVE NO PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD. A
QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL COME THROUGH NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR GCK AND HYS BETWEEN 12-20Z. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 10-20 KT RANGE BETWEEN 18-00Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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