962
FXUS63 KDDC 211610
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1010 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- A RAPID WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS,
INTO EARLY MARCH.
- A DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING,
PROVIDING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
08Z SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL COMPACT
CLOSED LOW CENTERED IN CENTRAL COLORADO WITH AN AREA OF LIFT IN
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH HAS LED TO A POCKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW JUST WEST OF THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER FROM LA JUNTA TO
CHEYENNE WELLS, COLORADO. A LARGE 1039 SURFACE HIGH WITH
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIR IS CENTERED IN WESTERN MISSOURI.
TODAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND WITH THE
ASSOCIATED LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WE SHOULD SEE A
POCKET OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH
THE GREATEST ODDS OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF K-96. THE
QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE LOW ALONG WITH SOME WEAKENING LATER
IN THE DAY IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENTIC LIFT WILL
PROVIDE AROUND A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW. MOST
PROBABILITIES FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOW 40-50% PROBABILITY OF AT
LEAST 0.1 INCH OF SNOW AND 5-10% PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH OF SNOW.
THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF IMPACTS WHEN THE SNOW FALLS BUT
OVERALL THIS WINTER SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD.
THE ARCTIC AIR WILL HANG AROUND TODAY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY MODESTLY WARM 1-2 (C) THROUGH THE
DAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES EASTWARD STRONGER DOWNSLOPING WINDS ENTER INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO 5-7 (C) BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE START OF
A WARMING TREND AS LREF ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTERS BOTH SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS WE HAVE A
60-90% CHANCE OF HIGHS GREATER THAN 70 DEGREES. A COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT THE AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FRONTS DON'T LOOK TO HAVE AN ARCTIC COMPONENT TO
THEM SO WE WON'T SEE A DRAMATIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES. WE ALSO
HAVE LOW PROBABILITIES OF ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE MAJORITY OF THE 100 MEMBER ENSEMBLE IN THE LREF
HAVE NO PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD,
WITH VFR/SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TURNER
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