557
FXUS63 KDDC 212242
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
442 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A RAPID WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS,
INTO EARLY MARCH.
- A DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING,
PROVIDING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
COMPACT CLOSED MIDLEVEL CYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER NW KS AS OF
MIDDAY, WITH RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING AN IMPRESSIVE MESOSCALE
SNOW BAND IN WFO GLD'S ZONES. SHORTWAVE AND CLOSED LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 6 PM, WHILE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF SNOW REMAINS NORTH OF THE DDC CWA. REDUCED POPS FOR
THE FAR NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE, THE STUBBORN ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY,
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO THE 20S NORTHEAST AND
30S SOUTHWEST, WITH ABOUT THE SW 1/2 OF THE AREA WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON.
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT, BUT NOT AS COLD AS IT HAS BEEN, AS THE
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO ERODE. SATURDAY SUNRISE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8-18 RANGE.
ALL MODELS SHOW RAPID, DRAMATIC WARMING SATURDAY AS THE ARCTIC
AIR FINALLY CLEANLY DEPARTS THE REGION. AS AN EXAMPLE, 12Z GFS
SHOWS A NET WARMING OF 15C AT 850 MB AT DDC, FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO
6 PM SATURDAY. WITH FULL INSOLATION AND GENTLE SWLY DOWNSLOPE,
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND EASILY INTO THE 50S, ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 40S OVER NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOWPACK TO MELT. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY, WITH HEIGHT RISES AND SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF
WARMING AT 850 MB SUPPORTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
60S. MOST OF THE SNOWCOVER ACROSS SW KS IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FORECASTING THE CRESCENDO OF
THE WARMING TREND ON MONDAY, WITH MANY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO
REACH 70 DEGREES. NBM PROBABILITY OF 2M T REACHING 70 IS ALREADY
40-50% ACROSS ALL OF SW KS, BUT PROBABILITY OF 2M T > 70 IS
80-90% ADJACENT TO OKLAHOMA. GENTLE NWLY DOWNSLOPE BREEZES WILL
MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL DAY, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE ARCTIC ICEBOX AS
OF LATE. UNSEASONABLY MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY, IN SWLY FLOW IN A WARM PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
A DRY COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO SWEEP THROUGH SW KS ABOUT
WEDNESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN, NOT ARCTIC, SO ONLY
MODEST TEMPERATURE REDUCTIONS, BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL, ARE
EXPECTED, AND ANY COOLDOWN WILL BE TEMPORARY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SW KS WILL BE DRY NOW FOR QUITE SOME TIME,
AT LEAST 7-10 DAYS, WELL INTO MARCH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 442 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DOMINATED BY A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REGIME, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY LIGHT (<10 KTS) AND VARIABLE WITH THE WINDS MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...KBJ
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