569
FXUS63 KDDC 270538
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1238 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ENHANCED FIRE DANGER AND RECORD HIGH POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING
- THE STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE MORE DRY ON SATURDAY AND
COLDER AIR WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLE SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON
SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
19Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A 5820 DM HIGH IN NEW MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE A 1026 SURFACE HIGH IN MISSOURI COMBINED WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO IS LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EASTWARD EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO
INTENSIFY A LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THE NIGHT AND COMBINING WITH A 700
MB SHORTWAVE WE COULD SEE ENOUGH LIFT TO PROMOTE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH BETTER OPPORTUNITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS
MORE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.
THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AROUND 1007 MB CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE STRONG THROUGH THE DAY AT 20-30 MPH AND GUSTING TO AROUND 40.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 15% FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 BY LATE AFTERNOON LEADING TO AN
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY AS NBM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW PROBABILITY OF HIGHS GREATER THAN 85 AT
NEAR 100% AND GREATER THAN 90 AT 50-60%. IF WE CAN REACH THESE
TEMPERATURES THIS WOULD BE NEAR THE CONVECTION TEMPERATURES BUFKIT
OUTPUT IS SHOWING (AROUND 28-30 C) A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
SURFACE LOW BACK INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO WOULD PROVIDE THE LIFT AT
THE SURFACE AND HREF ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME MODEST 700-850 FGEN BANDS
IN THIS VICINITY FOR LIFT. CAM MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT
CONVECTION BETWEEN 21Z-03Z AND AS A RESULT I PUT IN SOME 15-20% POPS
BASICALLY FROM HAYS TO THE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR GARDEN CITY. ONCE WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD FIZZLE OUT.
THE STORM SYSTEM SETUP HASN'T SHOWN MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING
FROM THE 4 CORNERS REGION ENTERING INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE GEFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE STRONGER WAVE AND BETTER
LIFT, BUT WITH THE FAST NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WE SHOULD HAVE THE
DRIER AIR AND THEN THE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS BY
LATE MORNING...ESSENTIALLY ENDING ANY REAL THREAT OF STORMS OR RAIN.
LONG RANGE SEVERE TRENDS CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW PROBABILITIES OF
SEVERE WITH 2-5% CHANCES STAYING MAINLY IN OUR FAR EAST ZONES. ONCE
THE WAVE DEPARTS A STRONG PUSH OF COLDER AIR AND POST FRONTAL LIFT
COMES IN SUNDAY AND THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF RAIN AND MAYBE A COUPLE
SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WILL BE MAINLY IN NORTHERN KANSAS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
THE FOCUS FOR THE NEST SET OF TAFS IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING (15-17Z) AS THE WIND
SHEAR LAYER MIXES OUT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH FOR
LATE DAY/EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY AFTER
00 UTC, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 40 TO 50 KNOTS GUSTS.
SPATIALLY, CONFIDENCE IS REALLY LOW (LESS THAN 10%) FOR ANY
GIVEN TERMINAL SEEING WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
THURSDAY WILL BRING THE RETURN OF AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER AS WINDS
WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 15%
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. BY LATE AFTERNOON WE
COULD HAVE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY FROM HAYS TO GARDEN CITY THAT COULD LEAD
TO SOME LIGHTNING STRIKE FIRES. THE THUNDERSTORMS AREN'T EXPECTED
TO HAVE A LOT OF RAIN SO ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM FIRE DANGER WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...TATRO
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