109
FXUS63 KDDC 271038
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
538 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST
- NEAR RECORD OR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY
- THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING BRINGING MAINLY A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST AND
LIGHTNING RISK
- A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL REGULATE HIGHS TO THE 40S AND 50S
FOR SUNDAY AND BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES (UP TO 50%)
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
THIS MORNING A STRONG 850 MB JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE IN
PLACE AT 9-12 UTC, MIXING OUT BY THE MID MORNING, AS GUSTS
RESUME TO THE 25 TO 30 KNOTS RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST β A
GREAT SETUP FOR DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC HEATING. HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXISTS FOR THESE HOT CONDITIONS FOR MARCH AS THE 25TH
PERCENTILE NBM HAS UPPER 80S AREAWIDE. THE 75TH PERCENTILE HAS
HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 90 AND 92F. A FEW RECORDS FOR TODAY
AND FRIDAY THE 27TH AND 28TH INCLUDE - DDC 89 IN 1879 AND 91 IN
1963 - GCK 84 IN 1988 AND 90 IN 1963 β AND MEDICINE LODGE (P28)
89 IN 1905 AND 89 IN 1963.
HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THIS AREA OF
BETTER CAPE IS OUTLINED FOR MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN THE DAY 1
OUTLOOK. HOWEVER FROM THE GENERAL OUTLAY OF THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS, THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS FARTHER WEST ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING β AS HIGH BASED AND LARGELY A LOCALLY
DOWNBURST WIND AND DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
MILD LOWS LARGELY IN THE 50S IS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE ANOTHER RELATIVELY HOT DAY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (SEE
AFOREMENTIONED RECORDS). THE BROADER WESTERLY FLOW WILL UNDERGO A
TRANSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC MODELS EC/GFS AND
CANADIAN ALL SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
AIRMASS MOVING IN TO WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS. SATURDAY WILL BRING THE GREATEST
TEMP UNCERTAINTY OWING TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT HOWEVER
ITβS REASONABLE TO PREPARE OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA LINE BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SUNDAY WILL BE FAR MORE FALL LIKE IN
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 40S (NORTH) AND 50S (SOUTH). SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE HOWEVER A
GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK IS IN PLACE DAY 3 (SATURDAY).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 531 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE SPREADING ACROSS THE HAYS TERMINAL AREA, AND
TO THE WEST OF GARDEN CITY SCATTERED VFR STRATUS (3-5KFT), IN
AN OTHERWISE CLEAR REGION. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING (15-17Z) IS ANTICIPATED AS THE WIND SHEAR LAYER MIXES
OUT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SURFACE LATE TODAY. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THAT
BOUNDARY AFTER 22 UTC, WITH POTENTIAL FOR QUITE LOCALIZED 40 TO
50 KNOTS GUSTS. SPATIALLY, CONFIDENCE IS REALLY LOW (LESS THAN
10%) FOR ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SEEING WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S WILL MIX OUT TOT HE 30S IN
THE WESTERN COUNTIES NEAR THE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE MAY
NOT BE LOW ENOUGH TO REACH THE 15% CRITERION, ALTHOUGH THE WINDS
WILL PROBABLY AT LEAST BE GUSTING OCCASIONALLY TO 20-25 MPH. A
LOOK AT AFTERNOON HREF COMBINED PROBABILITIES OFFERS A NARROW
CORRIDOR BY 22Z, FROM AROUND ELKHART THROUGH GRANT AND HASKELL
COUNTIES, OF UP TO A 30% PROBABILITY OF RH LESS THAN 15 % AND
WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 20 MPH.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL
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