154
FXUS63 KDDC 281601
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1101 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK WEST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 25 THIS AFTERNOON
- A COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING GENERALLY
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (UP TO 40%) NORTH AND RELEGATE
HIGHS TO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
BREAKING DAILY HIGH TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
AS IT WAS EASY YESTERDAY - WIND TRAJECTORIES ARE MORE OUT OF THE
SOUTH THAN THE SOUTHWEST, ELIMINATING OR SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING
THE DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING PROCESS. WITH THAT SAID,
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO WELL EXCEED THE 75TH PERCENTILE AT DDC
TO TIE THE RECORD OF 91 IN 1963. FARTHER WEST, A BETTER CHANCE
FOR REACHING THE DAILY RECORD AT GARDEN CITY EXISTS (90 IN 1963)
WITH A EXPECTED FORECAST HIGH OF 88F.
ANOTHER MILD OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH MAINLY WIDESPREAD
LOW TO MID 50S AS THE DEW POINTS ARE IN THAT RANGE. A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
LIMITING THE HOT TEMPS IN THE PRE FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AS WINDS
TURN WESTERLY. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (RAIN) OR EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY WITH THE FORCING OF THE COLD FRONT, ARE
NOT HIGH AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE PRESENT.
PROBABILITY FOR RAIN OR THUNDER IS LIMITED TO ABOUT 40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE 50S
FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, AND
WARMING FROM MUCH COLDER MORNING LOWS AROUND FREEZING ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES ON SATURDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS WILL BE THE COLDEST TIME WINDOW OF
THE 7 DAY FORECAST. A RANGE OF OUTCOMES INDICATED BETWEEN THE
75TH AND 25TH PERCENTILES NBM FORECAST MEMBERS FOR MONDAY
MORNING SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THE UPPER 20S A
POSSIBILITY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS THERE SHOULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS FOR KHYS IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED (10-20 KT) THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LLWS VIA A 50 KT LLJ THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. A FROPA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BY MID MORNING.
IT'S OUTSIDE OF THE TAF PD, BUT BREEZY N TO NE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
PREVAIL BY SATURDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
OVERALL , RED FLAG CRITERIA (15% RH OR LESS AND 20 MPH WINDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS) WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE BROADER AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE STRONG AND CONDUCIVE TO FIRE
SPREAD, UP AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH HOWEVER THE MOISTURE LEVELS
MEASURED BY IN THE DEW WELL INTO THE 40S AS FAR WEST AS THIS
HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WILL LIMIT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT. WITH THAT SAID, THE METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS WILL ENCROACH THE RED FLAG CRITERIA NEAR THE COLORADO
LINE (HIGHWAY 25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD).
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL
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