521  
FXUS63 KDDC 281903  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
203 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- MILD LOWS TONIGHT... ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL  
 
- A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE KANSAS PRAIRIE TOMORROW WITH A  
20% TO 40% CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND MAY EVEN THUNDER  
 
- A SMALL ROW OF COUNTIES MAY SEE NEAR CRITICAL TO RED FLAG  
CONDITIONS TOMORROW NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025  
 
DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON.  
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THE  
SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT. A HEALTHY 50 KT LLJ WILL  
DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED EVEN  
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE NET RESULT IS VERY MILD LOWS TONIGHT WITH  
VALUES ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S. THIS IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MEANWHILE, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF  
WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SFC  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW. A  
PACIFIC FRONT AND DRYLINE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE  
LOW DOES. THERE MIGHT BE A SMALL AREA OF HIGHER FIRE DANGER IN  
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND DRYLINE RIGHT ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER  
TOMORROW. MORE ON THIS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. OTHERWISE,  
WE WILL SEE A LARGE RANGE OF HIGHS TOMORROW WITH 70S IN THE NW TO  
80S IN THE SE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AS WELL. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION  
GOES, WELL THE LOW IS NOT IN THE BEST LOCATION FOR US TO GET  
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OUT OF IT. THE 20-40% POPS COVERS THE SITUATION  
WELL, AS SOME OF THE FA MIGHT GET DRYSLOTTED AND FOR THOSE LUCKY  
ENOUGH TO SEE A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORMS, OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE  
VERY LIGHT UNFORTUNATELY. IN FACT, MUCH OF THIS MAY FALL IN THE POST-  
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH ENDS  
UP AS LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SINCE DRY AIR ADVECTION IS OCCURRING.  
 
IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, SATURDAY WOULD BE YOUR BEST SHOT  
AS SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF  
THE REGION. THERE IS BONA FIDE CAA THAT WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY.  
AGAIN, THERE MIGHT BE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE POST-FRONTAL  
ENVIRONMENT, BUT NOTHING TO GET OVERLY EXCITED SINCE A MUCH DRIER  
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.  
 
BY MONDAY, THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE  
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THIS DOES WITH A MIX  
OF 50S AND 60S. EVEN WITH THE WARMTH, THE FIRE DANGER DOES NOT LOOK  
TOO BAD AS BOTH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE MORE  
MARGINAL SIDE.  
 
FOR TUESDAY, BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
GREATER REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO PRESSURES FALLING EAST OF THE  
ROCKIES, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WAA PATTERN FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS  
FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND BREEZY. AS A SFC LOW FORMS, IT LOOKS LIKE  
AN AREA BETWEEN THE PACIFIC FRONT AND BEHIND THE DRYLINE COULD LEAD  
TO HIGHER FIRE DANGER, AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. EXACT  
POSITIONS IN THESE BOUNDARIES ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.  
REGARDLESS, TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY. THERE MIGHT BE  
ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH WE  
COULD GET DRYSLOTTED AGAIN. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS BOTH THE  
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE NOT  
IN AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE PROSPECTS.  
 
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE STATE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH  
ANOTHER DROP IN BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS AS A DRIER AIRMASS PREVAILS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025  
 
VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION  
TO THIS IS THERE SHOULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS FOR KHYS IN THE MORNING.  
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED (10-20 KT) THROUGH MUCH OF  
THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LLWS VIA A 50 KT LLJ THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT  
PERIOD. A FROPA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BY MID MORNING.  
IT'S OUTSIDE OF THE TAF PD, BUT BREEZY N TO NE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY  
PREVAIL BY SATURDAY EVENING.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025  
 
THERE WILL BE A SMALL AREA OF MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS  
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT BUT BEHIND THE DRYLINE. THIS AREA  
IS EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF LOW  
DEWPOINTS, WARM HIGHS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BREEZY  
WINDS COULD LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL OR EVEN RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR A  
ROW OF COUNTIES RIGHT ALONG THE STATE BORDER. SINCE IT'S MARGINAL,  
WILL GO AHEAD AND DEFER/WAIT FOR ANY HEADLINES, BUT IT IS SOMETHING  
OF INTEREST TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN  
AVIATION...SUGDEN  
FIRE WEATHER...SUGDEN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page