165
FXUS63 KDDC 282249
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
549 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD LOWS TONIGHT... ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
- A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE KANSAS PRAIRIE TOMORROW WITH A
20% TO 40% CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND MAY EVEN THUNDER
- A SMALL ROW OF COUNTIES MAY SEE NEAR CRITICAL TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS TOMORROW NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT. A HEALTHY 50 KT LLJ WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED EVEN
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE NET RESULT IS VERY MILD LOWS TONIGHT WITH
VALUES ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S. THIS IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MEANWHILE, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW. A
PACIFIC FRONT AND DRYLINE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
LOW DOES. THERE MIGHT BE A SMALL AREA OF HIGHER FIRE DANGER IN
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND DRYLINE RIGHT ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
TOMORROW. MORE ON THIS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. OTHERWISE,
WE WILL SEE A LARGE RANGE OF HIGHS TOMORROW WITH 70S IN THE NW TO
80S IN THE SE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AS WELL. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
GOES, WELL THE LOW IS NOT IN THE BEST LOCATION FOR US TO GET
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OUT OF IT. THE 20-40% POPS COVERS THE SITUATION
WELL, AS SOME OF THE FA MIGHT GET DRYSLOTTED AND FOR THOSE LUCKY
ENOUGH TO SEE A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORMS, OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT UNFORTUNATELY. IN FACT, MUCH OF THIS MAY FALL IN THE POST-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH ENDS
UP AS LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SINCE DRY AIR ADVECTION IS OCCURRING.
IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, SATURDAY WOULD BE YOUR BEST SHOT
AS SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. THERE IS BONA FIDE CAA THAT WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY.
AGAIN, THERE MIGHT BE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT, BUT NOTHING TO GET OVERLY EXCITED SINCE A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
BY MONDAY, THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THIS DOES WITH A MIX
OF 50S AND 60S. EVEN WITH THE WARMTH, THE FIRE DANGER DOES NOT LOOK
TOO BAD AS BOTH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE MORE
MARGINAL SIDE.
FOR TUESDAY, BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
GREATER REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO PRESSURES FALLING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WAA PATTERN FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS
FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND BREEZY. AS A SFC LOW FORMS, IT LOOKS LIKE
AN AREA BETWEEN THE PACIFIC FRONT AND BEHIND THE DRYLINE COULD LEAD
TO HIGHER FIRE DANGER, AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. EXACT
POSITIONS IN THESE BOUNDARIES ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
REGARDLESS, TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY. THERE MIGHT BE
ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH WE
COULD GET DRYSLOTTED AGAIN. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE NOT
IN AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE PROSPECTS.
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE STATE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER DROP IN BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS AS A DRIER AIRMASS PREVAILS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 30 KTS. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE LLWS AROUND 4-5Z
THROUGH 8-10Z. WINDS WILL START FROM THE SOUTH AND SHIFT AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS TO BEING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HYS COULD SEE VCSH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO BE INCLUDED IN THIS ITERATION OF
TAFS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THERE WILL BE A SMALL AREA OF MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT BUT BEHIND THE DRYLINE. THIS AREA
IS EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF LOW
DEWPOINTS, WARM HIGHS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BREEZY
WINDS COULD LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL OR EVEN RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR A
ROW OF COUNTIES RIGHT ALONG THE STATE BORDER. SINCE IT'S MARGINAL,
WILL GO AHEAD AND DEFER/WAIT FOR ANY HEADLINES, BUT IT IS SOMETHING
OF INTEREST TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...KBJ
FIRE WEATHER...SUGDEN
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