003
FXUS63 KDDC 291604
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1104 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK ALONG OKLAHOMA STATE LINE
THIS AFTERNOON
- A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL LEAD TO 20% TO 40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AFTER 6 PM
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT GETS
DRAGGED EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY A TRANSIENT LOW PRESSURE. AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY, QUITE HOT CONDITIONS COMPARED TO TYPICAL
MARCH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ACHIEVABLE - SIMILAR TO THE
LAST 2 DAYS. THE RED HILLS REGION SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST AS THE
NBM 25TH PERCENTILE MAX T OFFERS 88F DEGREES AT MEDICINE LODGE.
THE RECORD HIGH AT MEDICINE LODGE IS 89 IN 1967, AND CERTAINLY
IN THE CROSSHAIRS OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN. THE COOLEST AREAS IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AROUND SCOTT CITY WITH A WIDER RANGE OF
OUTCOMES BETWEEN THE THE UPPER 60S AND MID 70S. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 30S ARE LIKELY IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT BUT COLDER MEMBERS
OF THE NBM OUTPUT SHOW UPPER 20S AS WELL BETWEEN THE ARK AND
SMOKY HILL RIVES WEST OF HWY 283.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COINCIDE WITH THE BETTER LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION IN
THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY (LESS THAN 10%) , BUT IF ANY WERE TO
OCCUR, THEY WOULD BE DRIFTING OUT THE THE EASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS NEAR SYRACUSE LATE EVENING. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL
ENSUE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS TEMPERATURES WARM FROM MORNING
LOWS IN THE 30S TO 50S MOST AREAS, AND AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THEN
SOUTH. WINDS SWITCH OUT OF THE SOUTH MONDAY SETTING UP A MARKED
WARMUP INTO TUESDAY.
WESTERLIES BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN CA INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER LEE
LOW PRESSURE AND DOWNSLOPE HOT AIRMASS SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE
WARMUP LOOKS TO BE QUITE SHORT LIVED GIVEN THE PATTERN AND
ANOTHER WESTERLY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SETUP FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, WITH SUSTAINED WEAK SURFACE/BOUNDARY
LAYER UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES LEAN TOWARD
LOW END (LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH) RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
REGION. INITIALLY, STORMS INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WOULD FIT THE PATTERN TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW
BUT THAT MIGHT BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE DDC AREA. FOLLOWING
THE HOTTER TUESDAY, MODERATED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
FINISH OUT THE WEEK WITH THE LOW (AS HIGH AS 20%)
PRECIPITATION/RAIN CHANCES CENTERED LARGELY AROUND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE EVENING. LOW LEVEL STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY,
RESULTING IN POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS IN VICINITY OF KHYS GENERALLY AFTER
07-09Z. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN TURNING MORE NORTHERLY GENERALLY AFTER 00-02Z THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
LOOK FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IN THE RED HILLS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT BY LATE DAY. BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES THOUGH, SEVERAL HOURS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
WILL DRIVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN TO AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT. THESE
LOWER RH VALUES IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL COMBINE
TO MAKE ANY GRASSFIRE MORE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL
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