115
FXUS63 KDDC 291906
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
206 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) RETURN TONIGHT.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEAR
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE SREF INDICATES A
SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA EJECTING OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS,
SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ITSELF
MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITHIN POCKETS OF H7 FRONTOGENETIC
BANDING IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT DIPPING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST HREF PAINTING A MERE
10-20% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING ONLY 0.1 OF AN INCH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BY MID-SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN IS
FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A GENERAL WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND MINIMAL
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED.
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA,
DROPPING H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND 0C. WITH THE HREF PAINTING AN
80-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 40F, LOOK FOR
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S(F). SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL REINFORCE THE COLDER AIR MASS STRETCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 0C IN
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 10C IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F IN VICINITIY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
WHERE THE HREF SHOWS ONLY A 50-60% PROBABILITY OF HIGHS TOPPING 50F
TO A 30-40% PROBABILITY OF HIGHS EXCEEDING 60F NEAR AND ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY AS
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLIES AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH
DRAWS WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL
ABOVE 10C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THE LATEST NBM INDICATES A 30-50% PROBABILITY OF HIGHS REACHING ABOVE
75F IN VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO A 60-80% PROBABLITY OF HIGHS
EXCEEDING 80F ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS CLOSER TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE EVENING. LOW LEVEL STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY,
RESULTING IN POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS IN VICINITY OF KHYS GENERALLY AFTER
07-09Z. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN TURNING MORE NORTHERLY GENERALLY AFTER 00-02Z THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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