633
FXUS63 KDDC 300516
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1216 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) RETURN TONIGHT.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEAR
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE SREF INDICATES A
SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA EJECTING OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS,
SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ITSELF
MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITHIN POCKETS OF H7 FRONTOGENETIC
BANDING IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT DIPPING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST HREF PAINTING A MERE
10-20% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING ONLY 0.1 OF AN INCH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BY MID-SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN IS
FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A GENERAL WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND MINIMAL
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED.
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA,
DROPPING H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND 0C. WITH THE HREF PAINTING AN
80-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 40F, LOOK FOR
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S(F). SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL REINFORCE THE COLDER AIR MASS STRETCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 0C IN
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 10C IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F IN VICINITY OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR WHERE THE HREF SHOWS ONLY A 50-60% PROBABILITY OF HIGHS
TOPPING 50F TO A 30-40% PROBABILITY OF HIGHS EXCEEDING 60F NEAR
AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
RETURN TUESDAY AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLIES AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
LEE SIDE TROUGH DRAWS WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH H85
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE 10C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
20C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE LATEST NBM INDICATES A
30-50% PROBABILITY OF HIGHS REACHING ABOVE 75F IN VICINITY OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF HIGHS EXCEEDING
80F ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROCEED A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. CAMS INDICATES GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION AND HAS VFR
CEILINGS LOWERING LATE TONIGHT. AT HAYS, CEILINGS EARLIER
TONIGHT HAVE ALREADY REPORTED CEILINGS AS LOW AS 2000 FT AGL.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY BETWEEN 07Z AND 18Z
SUNDAY (50-70% CHANCE). THIS TIME CEILINGS AS LOW AS 1000-1500FT
AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED
FOR GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS LOW AS AT HAYS. IN LIBERAL, CEILINGS WILL ALSO LOWER
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW 3000
FT AGL IS LESS THAN 50%. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 10-15
KNOTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT
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