765
FXUS63 KDDC 301020
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
520 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- 20-40% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY NORTH OF DODGE CITY
AND TONIGHT WEST OF DODGE CITY. ACCUMULATIONS FROM WHAT RAIN
THAT DOES DEVELOP EITHER TIME PERIODS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S POSSIBLE TUESDAY (50-90% SOUTH OF KS96).
- VERY WINDY WITH CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE RISK TUESDAY.
- COLDER AIR RETURNS TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
EARLIER THIS MORNING OF 700MB MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS
OUTLINED THE AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OCCURRING
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS IS THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
THAT WILL BE CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
20-40% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FOR TODAY...EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER WILL TAPER OFF BY NOON AS OUR FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES ARE NOT VERY HIGH
(20-40%) A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF GARDEN CITY MAY BRIEFLY SEE A
MIX OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE SHOWERS BEFORE THEY END. TONIGHT THE
NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES AND MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES IMPROVE. ONCE
AGAIN AN AREA OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE WILL BE PRESENT AND MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW
EVENING SHOWERS (20-30%) ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS WARMER 850MB TO 700MB TEMPERATURES SPREAD
EASTWARD IN WESTERN KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY, PEAKING TUESDAY IN THE 80S.
THIS WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES MAY END UP BEING A LITTLE COOL GIVEN THE
WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM ALL THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, THE TIGHT 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE SPREAD IN THESE
ENSEMBLE 850MB TEMPERATURES. ALSO THE DEEP MIXING POTENTIAL, AND
A 0.5-0.6 ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX. THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
HIGHS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
VERY WINDY WITH CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE RISK TUESDAY.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXITS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY OUR NEXT,
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS
WILL COINCIDE WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS, WITH SREF INDICATING MEAN 850MB WINDS EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS
AND NBM PROBABILITIES SHOWING A 50-70% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OF 40
MPH OR HIGHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE
COMBINATION OF WARM, DRY AIR (RELATIVE HUMIDITY POTENTIALLY
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS) AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ELEVATE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF WESTERN KANSAS. ALSO HAVE NOTICED THAT THE SPC
FIRE OUTLOOK HAS BEGUN TO OUTLINE AN AREA OF HIGH FIRE RISK FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING. NO OUTDOOR BURNING OR SPARK GENERATING ACTIVITIES
SHOULD BE CONDUCTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
COLDER AIR RETURNS TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS MID WEEK.
AS THE TUESDAY UPPER TROUGH PASSES, COLD AIR RETURNS TO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THIS OCCURS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND DEEPEN. THE DEEPENING
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LATE WEEK IS WHERE THE
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS DIFFER THE MOST AND AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW(<40%) ON HOW THIS NEXT UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER,
DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS FEATURE IT
DOES APPEAR THAT ALL THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEASONAL OR BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES IS JUST HOW
MUCH COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE CURRENTLY A 40-60% CHANCE EXISTS
FOR LOWS BELOW 30 DEGREES WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, AS OF 09Z, NEAR
AND NORTH OF KS-96. CAMS WERE DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION EARLIER THIS MORNING AND HAS THESE SCATTERED
SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH 18Z AROUND THE HAYS AREA AND JUST
NORTH OF GARDEN CITY. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND CEILING PROBABILITIES
INDICATE OVER A 50% CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT HAYS, GARDEN
CITY, AND DODGE CITY THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z, CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AT 3000 TO
6000FT AGL SPREADS FROM THE WEST AFTER 03Z MONDAY. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE TO 10-15KNOTS BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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