744
FXUS63 KDDC 310833
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
333 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
AN UPPER LOW EARLIER THIS MORNING WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE MODELS APPEAR
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET, WILL PRECEDE THIS UPPER LOW AND MOVE OUT
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS TUESDAY
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST THIS MORNING
AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY GIVEN THE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS IT WILL DELIVER TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOW DUST POTENTIAL
TUESDAY...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT (MONDAY NIGHT) AS SURFACE
PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND A 40-50 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DRYLINE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARDS NORTHWEST
KANSAS. BY NOON TUESDAY THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
MOVE THIS DRYLINE EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 SO AS THESE STRONGER WINDS
EAST OF THE DRY LINE MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IT APPEARS THAT
THE AREA WHAT CAN EXPECT THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 183. CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE FOR WINDS ON TUESDAY HAVE
BEEN INCREASED GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY WHERE
50KNOT 850MB WINDS ALIGN WITH THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE. MAX WIND
GUSTS FROM THE HREF APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA SO A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED, BUT FREQUENT
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
WEST OF THE DRYLINE, VERY WARM, DRY, AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CREATE CRITICAFIRE WEATHER...BURGERTL FIRE CONDITIONS. A
RED FLAG WARING IS IN EFFECT. WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON HERE ALSO DUE TO THE TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF OUR SURFACE LOW DEEPENING
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND DEEP MIXING. HREF MAX 10M GUSTS
SUGGEST AROUND 55 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLE LATE DAY,
ALIGNING WITH THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX (90-97.5
PERCENTILE FOR WINDS). CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND
EVENT WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BUT EVEN THESE WINDS (50-55MPH) WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND LOW VISIBILITIES.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WEST OF THE DRY LINE WILL BE THE VERY
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER BUT BLOWING DUST WILL BE A CLOSE SECOND.
GIVEN THESE STRONG WINDS AND THE >70% CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL BELOW 15% WILL GO AHEAD AN UPGRADE THE
FIRE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY EVENING.
BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE THAT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR OR EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. WE
WILL ALSO BE MONITORING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN
CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTERSECTING WITH THIS DRYLINE. THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AND THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENTLY THERE IS
STILL SOME CONCERN ON THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE DRYLINE BUT AT
THIS TIME THERE IS A >60% CHANCE FOR DEWPOINTS >50 DEGREES TO
BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING AS COOLING ALOFT AND IMPROVING
FORCING DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. GIVEN
THIS MOISTURE RETURN, UPPER LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF OUR
APPROACHING WAVE, AND A 300-250MB JET STREAK, THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK SEEMS REASONABLE. THE SEVERE WEATHER WINDOW MAY BE SHORT
(3-4 HOURS), BUT STORMS COULD INTENSIFY FAST WITH IMPROVING
SHEAR BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. EAST OF HIGHWAY 183, GUSTS
OVER 65 MPH AND HAIL LARGER THAN TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
THOSE FROM PRATT SOUTHWARD (THIS INCLUDES THE MEDICINE LODGE
AREA) SHOULD PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO WHERE THIS DRYLINE ENDS
UP EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BECAUSE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS...IF THIS BOUNDARY IS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF YOUR AREA
THEN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z TODAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE MOVES EAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND SURFACE
PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THESE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THROUGH 15Z TODAY
MOISTURE AND WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND A PERIOD OF 1000-2500FT AGL CEILINGS, MAINLY
IN THE DODGE CITY AND GARDEN CITY AREAS. AFTER 18Z VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. AFTER 03Z TUESDAY SEVERAL OF THE
CAMS INDICATED A LOW LEVEL JET OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS
BEEN INTRODUCED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
A CRITICAL FIRE RISK IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST, ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A DRYLINE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY. THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INDICATE FREQUENT AFTERNOON
GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A GREATER THAN 60% CHANCE
OF GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AFTER 2 PM. HUMIDITY
LEVELS ARE ALREADY FORECAST TO FALL BACK INTO THE 10 TO 15
PERCENT RANGE WEST OF HIGHWAY 283, AND THEY COULD FALL EVEN
LOWER DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING. GIVEN
ALL THESE CONDITIONS HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>077-084>087.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT
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