153
FXUS63 KDDC 311700
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST TUESDAY.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF A
DIGHTON TO MEADE LINE.
- A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 183 TUESDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
AN UPPER LOW EARLIER THIS MORNING WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE MODELS APPEAR
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET, WILL PRECEDE THIS UPPER LOW AND MOVE OUT
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS TUESDAY
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST THIS MORNING
AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY GIVEN THE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS IT WILL DELIVER TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOW DUST POTENTIAL
TUESDAY...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT (MONDAY NIGHT) AS SURFACE
PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND A 40-50 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DRYLINE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARDS NORTHWEST
KANSAS. BY NOON TUESDAY THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
MOVE THIS DRYLINE EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 SO AS THESE STRONGER WINDS
EAST OF THE DRY LINE MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IT APPEARS THAT
THE AREA WHAT CAN EXPECT THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 183. CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE FOR WINDS ON TUESDAY HAVE
BEEN INCREASED GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY WHERE
50KNOT 850MB WINDS ALIGN WITH THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE. MAX WIND
GUSTS FROM THE HREF APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA SO NO HEADLINES WILL NOT BE ISSUED, BUT FREQUENT GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
WEST OF THE DRYLINE, VERY WARM, DRY, AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE DRYLINE DUE TO THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SOUTH OF OUR SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
DEEP MIXING FROM THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HREF MAX 10M GUSTS HAS
GUSTS AS HIGH AS AROUND 55 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
SOME LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83, ALIGNING WITH THE ECMWF
EXTREME FORECAST INDEX (90-97.5 PERCENTILE FOR WINDS). CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BUT
EVEN THESE WINDS (50-55MPH) WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND LOW VISIBILITIES. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WEST OF
THE DRY LINE WILL BE THE VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER BUT BLOWING
DUST WILL BE A CLOSE SECOND. GIVEN THESE STRONG WINDS AND THE
>70% CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL BELOW 15% WILL
GO AHEAD AN UPGRADE THE FIRE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY EVENING...
BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE THAT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
WE WILL ALSO BE MONITORING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN
CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTERSECTING WITH THIS DRYLINE LATE DAY.
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENTLY
THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN ON THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE DRYLINE
BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS A >60% CHANCE FOR DEWPOINTS 50
DEGREES OR HIGHER TO BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING AS COOLING
ALOFT AND IMPROVING FORCING DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. GIVEN THIS MOISTURE RETURN, UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AHEAD OF OUR APPROACHING WAVE, AND A 300-250MB JET STREAK, THE
SPC SLIGHT RISK SEEMS REASONABLE. FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA THE SEVERE WEATHER WINDOW MAY BE SHORT (3-4
HOURS), BUT ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD INTENSIFY FAST.
EAST OF HIGHWAY 183, GUSTS OVER 65 MPH AND HAIL LARGER THAN TWO
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
THOSE FROM PRATT SOUTHWARD (THIS INCLUDES THE MEDICINE LODGE
AREA) SHOULD PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO WHERE THIS DRYLINE ENDS
UP EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BECAUSE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS...IF THIS BOUNDARY IS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF YOUR AREA
THEN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
LINGERING MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS
CONTINUES TO ERODE/LIFT. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20KT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 20-22Z AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT WHILE INCREASING 15 TO
25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AS DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS IN EASTERN COLORADO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
A CRITICAL FIRE RISK IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST, ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A DRYLINE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY. THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INDICATE FREQUENT AFTERNOON
GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A GREATER THAN 60% CHANCE
OF GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AFTER 2 PM. HUMIDITY
LEVELS ARE ALREADY FORECAST TO FALL BACK INTO THE 10 TO 15
PERCENT RANGE WEST OF HIGHWAY 283, AND THEY COULD FALL EVEN
LOWER DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING. GIVEN
ALL THESE CONDITIONS HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>077-084>087.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT
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