809
FXUS63 KDDC 311911
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
211 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-40%) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY
EVENING.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE RISK TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, GIVING WAY TO A
GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE
SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-40%) RETURN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE TUESDAY AS THE SREF INDICATES AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES DOWNSTREAM OF A BROADER
SCALE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. IN RESPONSE, A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO
EARLY TUESDAY IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, USHERING
AN ATTENDANT SHARPENING DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING DRYLINE WILL PUSH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WELL UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S(F) TO POTENTIALLY THE LOWER 60S(F),
INCREASING INSTABILITY. COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SUGGESTED BY CAMS WITH STORMS QUICKLY
SPREADING EAST-NORTHEAST. WITH THE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MOST
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS,THE HREF/NBM BOTH INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
THERE IS ONLY A 10-20% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING A 0.25
OF AN INCH BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, INCLUDING A STRONG +100KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET
OVERSPREADING THE REGION, WILL INCREASE SEVERE POTENTIAL, IF ONLY
BRIEFLY BEFORE ANY STORMS EXIT THE AREA.
A BREAK IN THE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES (20-30%) RETURN THURSDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES POINT TO
ANOTHER EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE BROADER
SCALE TROUGH AXIS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AS PREVAILING
SOUTHERLIES DRAW SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS, PUSHING
H85 TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE 0C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO ABOVE 10C IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH THE HREF INDICATING ONLY A 20-40% PROBABILITY
OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 45F IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO AN 80%
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 50F IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S(F). THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES LIKELY AS
PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES HELP PUSH H85 TEMPERATURES ABOVE 15C IN
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT BY THE COLORADO LINE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S(F) TO POTENTIALLY THE
LOWER 80S(F) WITH THE HREF PAINTING A 40-60% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 75F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO
A 30-50% PROBABILITY OF HIGHS NUDGING ABOVE 80F CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER GENERALLY EAST OF LIBERAL. COOLER AIR SPILLING INTO WESTERN
KANSAS WEDNESDAY BEHIND A RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
LINGERING MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS
CONTINUES TO ERODE/LIFT. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20KT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 20-22Z AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT WHILE INCREASING 15 TO
25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AS DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS IN EASTERN COLORADO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
A CRITICAL FIRE RISK IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST, ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A DRYLINE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY. THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INDICATE FREQUENT AFTERNOON
GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A GREATER THAN 60% CHANCE
OF GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AFTER 2 PM. HUMIDITY
LEVELS ARE ALREADY FORECAST TO FALL BACK INTO THE 10 TO 15
PERCENT RANGE WEST OF HIGHWAY 283, AND THEY COULD FALL EVEN
LOWER DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING. GIVEN
ALL THESE CONDITIONS HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>077-084>087.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT
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