495
FXUS63 KDDC 010528
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1228 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-40%) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY
EVENING.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE RISK TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, GIVING WAY TO A
GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE
SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-40%) RETURN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE TUESDAY AS THE SREF INDICATES AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES DOWNSTREAM OF A BROADER
SCALE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. IN RESPONSE, A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO
EARLY TUESDAY IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, USHERING
AN ATTENDANT SHARPENING DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING DRYLINE WILL PUSH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WELL UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S(F) TO POTENTIALLY THE LOWER 60S(F),
INCREASING INSTABILITY. COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SUGGESTED BY CAMS WITH STORMS QUICKLY
SPREADING EAST-NORTHEAST. WITH THE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MOST
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS,THE HREF/NBM BOTH INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
THERE IS ONLY A 10-20% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING A 0.25
OF AN INCH BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, INCLUDING A STRONG +100KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET
OVERSPREADING THE REGION, WILL INCREASE SEVERE POTENTIAL, IF ONLY
BRIEFLY BEFORE ANY STORMS EXIT THE AREA.
A BREAK IN THE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES (20-30%) RETURN THURSDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES POINT TO
ANOTHER EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE BROADER
SCALE TROUGH AXIS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AS PREVAILING
SOUTHERLIES DRAW SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS, PUSHING
H85 TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE 0C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO ABOVE 10C IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH THE HREF INDICATING ONLY A 20-40% PROBABILITY
OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 45F IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO AN 80%
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 50F IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S(F). THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES LIKELY AS
PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES HELP PUSH H85 TEMPERATURES ABOVE 15C IN
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT BY THE COLORADO LINE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S(F) TO POTENTIALLY THE
LOWER 80S(F) WITH THE HREF PAINTING A 40-60% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 75F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO
A 30-50% PROBABILITY OF HIGHS NUDGING ABOVE 80F CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER GENERALLY EAST OF LIBERAL. COOLER AIR SPILLING INTO WESTERN
KANSAS WEDNESDAY BEHIND A RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
EVEN WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT A LOW LEVEL JET WITH WIND
SPEEDS OF 50 KNOTS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THROUGH 14Z TODAY. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z TODAY A
DRYLINE WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL SHIFT THESE GUSTY
WINDS FROM SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. AS WINDS VEER
MORE TO THE WEST THE CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THESE GUSTY WINDS MAY RESULT IN AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST WHICH MAY LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL
PRODUCE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE, MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND AN
ADVANCING DRYLINE WILL LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO BELOW 15
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON,
CREATING A CRITICAL FIRE RISK. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE AREA IN QUESTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8
PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-
084>088.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...JJOHNSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page