899
FXUS63 KDDC 011026
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
526 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WINDY TODAY WITH BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE. DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.
- THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
7PM EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. HAIL LARGER THEN TENNIS BALLS, WIND
GUSTS >60 MPH AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
- ELEVATED FIRE RISK POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
SHORT TERM MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE/LEFT
EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET, EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THIS MORNING AND CROSSING THE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES AN AREA
THIS MORNING AN LOW PRESSURE THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THIS DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW CROSSES NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON A
DRYLINE WILL SURGE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHILE A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
DEEP MIXING POTENTIAL WEST OF THE DRYLINE WILL CREATE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG WINDS, AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
AND DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST OF THIS DRYLINE. EAST
OF THIS DRYLINE, VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WINDS WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT BUT IN ADDITION THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR EVENING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER, WIND GUSTS >65 MPH
AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM AND MULTIPLE HAZARDS EXPECTED, CLOSE MONITORING OF
FORECAST UPDATES AND SEVERE WEATHER ALERTS IS ADVISED.
DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY BEHIND A
DRYLINE THAT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BY MID AFTERNOON THIS
DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN HIGHWAY 283 AND HIGHWAY 183.
WEST OF THIS DRYLINE GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35
MPH WILL DEVELOP. BUFR SOUNDING WIND GUSTS VIA MOMENTUM TRANSFER
WEST OF THE DRYLINE TODAY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT WIND MAY GUST AS
HIGH AS 50 TO 55 MPH. THIS IS A REASONABLE SOLUTION GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING POTENTIAL AND 800MB TO 700MB WINDS, ESPECIALLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 83. AS A RESULT WILL BE FAVORING THE STRONGER 75TH
TO 90TH PERCENT WIND GUST GUIDANCE TODAY. GIVEN THESE STRONG
WINDS GUSTS WHEN COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE WILL CREATE VERY DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. ANY OPEN FLAMES CAN
SPREAD RAPIDLY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT WEST OF HIGHWAY 283, WHERE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED. EAST OF THIS AREA, HUMIDITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
(20-30%), BUT STRONG WINDS STILL POSE A FIRE RISK. ANY
ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CREATE SPARKS SHOULD BE AVOIDED.
IN ADDITION TO THE FIRE RISK TODAY THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST (CONFIDENCE OF BLOWING DUST
70%). THIS BLOWING DUST MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIME. ANYONE WHO MAY BE TRAVELING TODAY SHOULD
BE AWARE OF THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD AND BE PREPARED FOR SUDDEN
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES.
BESIDES WIND, DUST AND FIRE WE ALSO WILL BE MONITORING THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER EARLY THIS EVENING.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BY MID AFTERNOON THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DRYLINE TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN
HIGHWAY 283 AND HIGHWAY 183. BY EARLY TONIGHT (7PM), THE
DRYLINE WILL BRIEFLY STALL NEAR OR EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND THE A LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST. FURTHER WEST A STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE WARM 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY LIMIT CONVECTION LATE DAY, BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE AND STRENGTHENING 0-1KM
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS THEN WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET A FEW ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 7PM THIS EVENING. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY RAPIDLY. ANY STORM
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TENNIS BALL HAIL
OR LARGER AND WIND GUSTS OVER 65 MPH. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 GIVEN THE
IMPROVING SHEAR FROM A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING. THIS WOULD
INCLUDE THE AREAS OF ST. JOHN, PRATT, AND MEDICINE LODGE.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, STORMS WILL EXIT OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING WESTERLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE, THERE IS A
40% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 25 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH HUMIDITY
NEAR 15%. THIS COULD CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WEST AND SOUTH OF DODGE CITY, WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF ISOLATED
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE RISK ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE ENSEMBLES AND MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND A 500MB RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THEY ALSO AGREE WITH A NORTHERN
BRANCH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING CANADA AND MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOCATION OF THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
AN UPPER TROUGH EXITING CENTRAL CANADA IS IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR ALLOWING COLD CANADIAN AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT WE HAVE TO
BE LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE DETAILS OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK AND EVOLUTION,
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS SHOW STRONG ENSEMBLE
AGREEMENT ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING OVER THE
WEEKEND PERIOD AS OUR NEXT SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INVADES
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS NEXT SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL INCLUDE A
CHANCE FOR SNOW AND A POSSIBLE HARD FREEZE. THERE’S A 50-80
PERCENT CHANCE FOR LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING TO BE <25
DEGREES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
NO BIG CHANGE IN THE TRACK OR TIMING OF A DRYLINE THAT WILL
CROSS OUR 4 TAF SITES BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z TODAY. AS THE DRYLINE
PASSES THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. GUSTS AS
HIGH 40 WILL BE LIKELY (60%) AFTER 18Z TODAY. THESE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST. AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY THESE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DECREASE ONCE A COLD FRONT CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ONCE THIS
COLD FRONT PASSES THE GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND
DECREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. ALSO AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT A PERIOD
OF VFR CEILINGS IN THE 5000 TO 1000FT AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE MAY EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THESE CLOUDS IN THE HAYS AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
BECOME WEST SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE A 60-90% CHANCE OF REACHING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WEST
OF HIGHWAY 283. THERE IS ALSO A 30-50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO
BE GREATER THAN 50 MPH WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN 2 AND 6PM THIS
EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE EXTREME BURNING
CONDITIONS. OPEN FIRES CAN QUICKLY ESCAPE AND WILL BE VERY
DIFFICULT TO CONTROL. A RED FLAG WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
WHERE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED (WEST OF HIGHWAY 283).
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8
PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-043>045-061>064-
074>078-084>088.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT
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