075
FXUS63 KDDC 191707
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1207 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL SATURDAY.
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED EASTER SUNDAY, BUT ONLY EAST OF
US HIGHWAY 83.
- SUNSHINE RETURNS AND MUCH WARMER MONDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
MIDNIGHT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A WIDESPREAD MIDLEVEL CLOUD
DECK OVER SW KS, WITH COOL NE WINDS PREVAILING. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL EXIT PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS ACROSS COLORADO IS
SNEAKING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES, WHERE MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 32 AT SUNRISE. THICK CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM ACHIEVING A HARD FREEZE
OF 28 DEGREES OR LOWER SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A CLOUDY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY, WITH A
THICK MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK PREVAILING, AND TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL. FOLLOWED THE COLDEST NAM SOLUTIONS, AS THEY
PERFORMED BEST FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING
INTO THE LOWER 50S. MANY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ZONES
ADJACENT TO OKLAHOMA, WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG CLOSED CYCLONE OVER ARIZONA SATURDAY MORNING WILL ONLY
PROCEED TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY 7 PM SATURDAY. AS SUCH, MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF SATURDAY.
STRONG 557 DM CLOSED LOW IS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY MODELS TO
ARRIVE IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE 7 AM SUNDAY, AND EJECT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE'S DEFORMATION ZONE
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE
STORM TRACK, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SW KS. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINING HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE RAIN PROGRESSES, AS THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CLEARLY
RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST ZONES,
SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY, AND TRIED TO MESSAGE THAT EXPECTATION
WITH THE POP GRIDS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY, WHEN 1/4 - 1/2 INCH SHOULD BE COMMON, AS
SHOWN BY WPC GUIDANCE, BUT ONLY EAST OF US 83. NBM PROBABILITY
OF QPF > 1 INCH IS LESS THAN 50% ALONG US 283, BUT NEAR 80%
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. NORTHWEST ZONES FROM
SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAIN
FROM THIS SYSTEM. CLOUDS, RAIN AND NORTH WINDS WILL WORK
TOGETHER TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AGAIN SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY EAST, WITH WARMER 60S ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.
DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY, WITH THE RETURN OF
SUNSHINE, SOUTH WINDS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS ZONAL FLOW
RETURNS ALOFT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES, IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. TUESDAY REMAINS DRY,
BUT GULF MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOW GENTLE
SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES, WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A DRYLINE AND THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.
THESE TRENDS ARE WELL REPRESENTED BY THE NBM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S, MUCH MILDER MORNING LOWS, AND
SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WE WILL SEE CLOUD CEILINGS FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL START AT DDC, LBL,
AND GCK BETWEEN 00-02Z AND AT HYS AFTER 06Z. BANDS OF MORE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD ALSO MOVE IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AFTER 06Z AND THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL FALL
FOR DDC AND HYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE MORNING ON SUNDAY. AS THE RAIN MOVES IN HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF IFR (~50%) AND LIFR (~20%) FLIGHT CATEGORY
WILL HAPPEN FOR HYS AND DDC AFTER 09Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TATRO
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