284
FXUS63 KDDC 191904
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
204 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN (80-90%) FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A LIBERAL TO HAYS LINE ON SUNDAY
- DRY TO START OFF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TOWARDS MID TO LATE WEEK WITH RAIN
AND STORMS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
19Z SURFACE OBSERVATION AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A 555 DM CLOSED
LOW CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A STREAM OF MOISTURE
FROM CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THIS MOISTURE IS
LEADING TO MAINLY A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A 700 MB SHORTWAVE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. A SURFACE HIGH IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER AT THE 850 MB LEVEL IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS LEADING
TO MAINLY NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY HREF AND NBM GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
SUNRISE WE SHOULD SEE A DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOP WITH MAINLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SETTING UP ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LIBERAL TO
HAYS LINE AND THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF RAIN AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OF RAIN MORESO ALONG AND EAST OF A LARNED TO COLDWATER LINE. HREF
PROBABILITIES OF > 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ON
SUNDAY ARE AT 50-100% EAST OF THE LIBERAL TO HAYS LINE AND NBM IS AT
50-80%. INCREASING THE PROBABILITY TO 1 INCH OF RAIN PUTS THE
PROBABILITIES EAST OF A LARNED TO COLDWATER LINE AT 40-80%. GIVEN
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE THE CLOSED LOW TRACK FROM THE
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE IN THE MORNING TO NORTHEAST KANSAS BY THE
AFTERNOON THE BEST AREA OF 700 MB LIFT FOR THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS
LEADING TO THESE HIGHER PROBABILITIES. AS YOU GO FARTHER WEST THE
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN AND HIGHER AMOUNTS GO DOWN DRAMATICALLY SO WE
WILL PROBABLY SEE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGHER QPF AND THE
LOWER QPF. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT AND
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE THE
SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AND AS A RESULT WE SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S IN THE WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SUN AND
LESS RAIN AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE THE RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND PRETTY MUCH ALL
DAY. SUNDAY EVENING ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WEST WINDS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
THAT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD TURN MORE ZONAL
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S. THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT ON TUESDAY WILL
BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS SWITCHING
THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST BUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ISN'T VERY
STRONG SO TEMPERATURES WON'T BE AFFECTED VERY MUCH.
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WITH A WARM FRONT POSITIONED ROUGHLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS WE SHOULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR STORMS INCREASES QUICKLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CHANCES OF RAIN GO TO 40-60% THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. LREF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP US
IN A SOUTHWEST REGIME IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH PERIODIC
SHORTWAVES LEADING TO CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND OUR
HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND STORMS (70-80%). CSU-MLP AND LONG RANGE
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE HINTING AT AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS THE TROUGHS DON'T LOOK TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT AND
THERMODYNAMIC SETUP DOESN'T LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WE WILL SEE CLOUD CEILINGS FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL START AT DDC, LBL,
AND GCK BETWEEN 00-02Z AND AT HYS AFTER 06Z. BANDS OF MORE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD ALSO MOVE IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AFTER 06Z AND THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL FALL
FOR DDC AND HYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE MORNING ON SUNDAY. AS THE RAIN MOVES IN HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF IFR (~50%) AND LIFR (~20%) FLIGHT CATEGORY
WILL HAPPEN FOR HYS AND DDC AFTER 09Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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