394
FXUS63 KDDC 210529
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1229 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 ON MONDAY
- THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND CHANCES OF STORMS
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER (50-80%) THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN
THREAT OF HAIL PRODUCING STORMS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
19Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 559 DM CLOSED LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WITH A 700 MB FGEN BAND AND DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE POCKETS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ARE SHOWING
UP ON RADAR IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GOES SATELLITE DATA IS SHOWING
SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SUNNY SKIES WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83.
TONIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED WELL TO THE
EAST THAT ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS WILL HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHED
WINDS. AS THE CLOSED LOW EXITS AND A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COLORADO ROCKIES WE SHOULD SEE A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOP AND WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE WINDS SHOULD BRING
IN SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR THROUGH THE NIGHT HOWEVER WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. WITH THE DAY'S RAIN AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
THE WINDS SWITCH WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
STRENGTHENING LEE SIDE TROUGH IN COLORADO AND CLOSED LOW IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALONG WITH THE WARMER AIR AND SUNSHINE
THE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 10-15% LEADING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. NBM HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
REACHING NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
83.
TUESDAY THE ZONAL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BUT APPEARS TO STALL OUT
ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 56 CORRIDOR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT ITSELF WON'T HAVE MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT SO WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 80S. AROUND SUNSET THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND A 700 MB SHORTWAVE COMES OUT
OF NEW MEXICO AND WILL COMBINE WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN 7-10 PM.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET COMBINING
WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH COULD
LEAD TO HAIL PRODUCING STORMS.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MODELS KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. LOWER LEVEL PATTERN KEEPS THE WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TO BRING IN GULF MOISTURE WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO STAY MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH
PERIODIC SHORTWAVES MOVING IN FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERE
WEATHER RISK AT THIS POINT WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOWER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL BULK SHEAR AS THE ENSEMBLES AREN'T REALLY
SIGNALING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR A MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE OFFERING FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS NBM 72 HOUR PROBABILITIES OF 1 INCH
OR MORE OF RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
IS 40-60% ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES (10%) IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE CLEAR SKY AND COULD BE COMPROMISED BY LIGHT FOG/BR
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM RADIATIONAL COOING
ACROSS A WET GONG FROM PREVIOUS DAYS COPIUS RAINFALL AROUND
PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE. THE HREF SURFACE VISIBILITY SUGGEST
PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AROUND THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA AND
A MORE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 MILE VISIBILITY SOUTHEAST OF DDC.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 AND HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF NEAR RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. WINDS WILL TURN BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS IN EASTERN
COLORADO. DRY AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS AS TEMPERATURES
WARM AND MIXING CONTINUES AFTER THE NOON HOUR AS LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO AROUND 10-15%. WIND GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL REACH TO AROUND 30 MPH.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>076-084>086.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...TATRO
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