623
FXUS63 KDDC 211613
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1113 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
- THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND CHANCES OF STORMS
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER (50-80%) THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE MAIN THREAT OF HAIL PRODUCING STORMS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
A 1016 HPA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS TEXAS INTO EASTERN
KANSAS THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO SLIDE OFF EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, ALLOWING AN INCREASE TO THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WHILE NOT STRONG WILL STILL BE FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO THE MID 20’S (KNOTS) OR NEARLY 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES
BOUNCE BACK WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HITTING NEAR 80S
DEGREES (79 TO 82 IS THE REASONABLE RANGE OF OUTCOMES AT DODGE
CITY).
CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ANYTIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY THOUGH
ABOUT FRIDAY AT WHICH POINT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH, BRINGING COOLER 60S FOR HIGHS AGAIN TO START OUT THE
NEXT WEEKEND. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ARE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
FAST ZONAL FLOW N THE MID LEVELS AND AN INVERTED SURFACE
TOUGH/SURFACE LOW EXTENDING FROM NE NM INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTHCENTRAL
KANSAS. MEAN SURFACE BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG IS
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54 TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LESS OF A FOCUS AREA FOR CONVECTION AS
FAR AS OBVIOUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES EXIST, HOWEVER WEAK FORCING
ALOFT MAY STILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
(60-85%) COME INTO THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER FLOW REMAINS BUCKLED OVER THE WESTERN STATES ALLOW
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WESTERN
PLAINS, AS THE NEXT COLD AIRMASS INVADES THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HERE,
THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT TURN TO A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT BEGINNING IN
EARNEST THURSDAY EVENING AND ENDING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR AND ALONG THE COLORADO LINE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY WEEST OF
HIGHWAY 23 (DIGHTON TO MEADE) WILL BE THE MOST ART RISK FOR FIRE
WEATHER IMPACTS TODAY. THE FARTHER WEST ONE GOES FROM THAT
LINE, THE LONGER DURATION OF TIME THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS TO
NEAR 15 PERCENT AND WINDS FREQUENTLY GUST TO AROUND THE 30 MPH
MARK. RED FLAG WARNING WAS POSTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WEST OF A
DIGHTON TO GARDEN TO HUGOTON LINE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074-075-084-085.
DISCUSSION...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL
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